Image for Mike Lukas Mike Lukas - October 14, 2022

Drew Brees' 2020/21 Passing Yards and Touchdowns - Predictions & Odds

Drew Brees Passing Yards Touchdowns
  • The upcoming NFL season will be New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees’ 20th in the league, his 15th with the Saints and his 14th with head coach Sean Payton.
  • During this offseason, Brees and the Saints agreed to a two-year deal worth $50 million, a contract extension including a $23 million signing bonus, $25 million guaranteed and an average annual salary of $25 million.
  • Brees missed five games last season due to a torn ligament in the thumb of his throwing arm he suffered in Week 2, the injury requiring surgery that would typically take 6-8 weeks to recover from.
  • With Brees under center, the Saints have been to the postseason for each of the last three seasons, they won a Super Bowl in 2009, and they have played football in January for eight of the fourteen seasons he’s been in New Orleans.

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2020 NFL fans will have the rare pleasure of getting to watch several Hall-of-Fame worthy quarterbacks all suit up to play this season, and one of those who’s itching to win his second Super Bowl ring is New Orleans Saints superstar Drew Brees.

Despite a serious injury to the thumb of his throwing hand, Brees took his 2019 Saints to the playoffs for the third season in a row, the 41-year old veteran QB (40 at the time) impressively leading the league in completion percentage in all three of those seasons (72.0, 74.4, 74.3).

This very well could be the last year of football for Brees before his inevitable retirement (though if he stays healthy that could definitely change), so place a bet while you can on his potential performance after taking a look at the predictions and odds of his total passing yards and touchdowns for 2020.

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Drew Brees 2020 Total Passing Yards Odds
Over 3900.5 -110
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Under 3900.5 -110
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If healthy, Brees is predicted to throw for over 4,000 yards, which he has actually done as the Saints QB in every season he’s played in all 16 of the games.

Drew Brees 2020 Total Passing Touchdowns Odds
Over 29.5 -110
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Under 29.5 -110
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This seems like an easy bet (Brees has thrown for less than 30 TDs in two of the last three seasons, so take the under, right?) except he’s thrown for 30+ TDs in ten of his fourteen seasons in New Orleans.

WRs Michael Thomas and Now Emmanuel Sanders Improve Brees

Does not hurt Brees one bit that he has (arguably) one of the best receivers playing in the NFL right now, Michael Thomas, a large yet speedy target who has been known to shake free after the catch for extra gain.

Now add to that deep threat the talents of the newly acquired Emmanuel Sanders, the exceptional receiver whose decade long NFL career has been plagued by multiple injuries yet somehow he managed to catch 3 passes for 38 yards in the last Super Bowl.

Having two legitimate deep threats in Thomas and a healthy Sanders will be tough to defend given Brees’ ability to utilize that type of on field mixture, so expect the quarterback’s numbers in 2020 to reflect that bump in target quality.

The Saints Offensive Line was Upgraded for Brees

The Saints’ front office used their first-round pick to snag Michigan interior offensive lineman Cesar Ruiz, their expectation being that he will eventually move from guard to center as he gets more acclimated to the NFL.

Last season the New Orleans front line kept Drew Brees extremely safe, allowing defenders to sack their elderly quarterback just 12 times throughout the regular season, with 20 or fewer sacks in the two seasons prior to that.

As Brees gets older, his ability to maintain his high level of play for the entire regular season gets more challenging, so adding a talented guard (then center) like Ruiz gives Brees lots of young energy to feed off of while taking snaps in the fourth quarter during Weeks 16 and 17.

The Saints’ Rushing Attack Must Step Up For Brees

Without a decent rushing attack, it becomes too easy for defenses to focus on and shut down the passing game, so it becomes essential for New Orleans running backs to do better than they ranked last season – 16th in a league of 32.

Alvin Kamara finished the season with the 22nd best production at his position, and his backfield partner, Latavius Murray, finished 30th at his position, both backs posting 5 rushing touchdowns each with neither coming close to breaking the 1,000 total rushing yard mark.

Brees will also benefit from Kamara’s ability to catch the ball – he is targeted the slippery back 81 times in each of the last three seasons, though last year that only resulted in one touchdown through the air between them.

Our Pick

Pick: Take the over on both – Brees is a notoriously healthy athlete who will remain protected enough (again) to make another legitimate run at the Lombardi, so expect his total passing yards and touchdowns to approach career highs in 2020.

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AUTHOR

Mike Lukas

1130 Articles

Mike Lukas is a retired standup comedian turned freelance writer now living in Dallas, Texas, originally from Cleveland, Ohio. His love for the game of football and all things Cleveland Browns turned Mike into a pro blogger years ago. Now Mike enjoys writing about all thirty-two NFL teams, hoping to help football gamblers gain a slight edge in their pursuit of the perfect wager. Email: [email protected]

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