Best Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prop Bets: Expect Both Defensive Lines to Thrive

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a half game lead for first in the NFC South

• Kirk Cousins replaced Michael Penix Jr after he suffered a season ending injury

• The Atlanta Falcons front seven ranks top-5 in Pass Rush Win Rate

After their latest loss to New Orleans, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in desperate need of getting back in the win column as they possess just a half-game lead for first in the NFC South odds. Unfortunately for the current division leaders, negative regression looms large over their offense as they face off against the Atlanta Falcons who excel at collapsing the pocket.

Best Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prop Bets

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Baker Mayfield Under 21.5 Pass Completions (-140) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After climbing up the NFL MVP odds, Baker Mayfield has suddenly cooled off while the injuries have ramped up as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback ranks below league average in Quarterback EPA per play. Even though he excels at airing out the ball, his lack of efficiency has started to stall out their drives as Mayfield also grades out poorly in Turnover Worthy Play Percentage.

In an NFC South divisional matchup against Atlanta, his struggles in the pocket are poised to persist as he faces off against a Falcons front seven who resides near the top of the board in Pass Rush Win Rate. With Mayfield forced to get the ball out of his hands quickly in his progressions, the quality of his throws will harshly decline which lowers his chances of generating a completion.

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Bucky Irving Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While the Falcons front seven have excelled at pressuring the quarterback, they have struggled to stop the run as they also rank below league average in Run Defense PFF Grade. A stunning low level of play when factoring in their heavy use of the blitz as their extra bodies in the trenches have been unable to help them clog the running lanes.

With the Falcons giving up sizable gains at a time with each carry, expect Bucky Irving to quickly round back into form as the Bucs starting running back excelled at generating explosive runs before he went down with an injury. For some more exposure, escalators bet Irving’s rushing yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs.

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Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+117) at FanDuel Sportsbook

When near the goal line, Irving has been the focal point of the Bucs offense as he has already rivals his teammates in total Red Zone Carries after missing six games of the regular season. With the Falcons struggling to stop the run, expect the Bucs to continue to lean heavily on Irving as this will help negate the variance that comes from throwing the ball into tight coverage.

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Kirk Cousins Under 206.5 Passing Yards (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since replacing Michael Penis Jr after the Falcons quarterback went down with an injury, Kirk Cousins has struggled to give their offense the production they need to be competitive as he currently ranks below league average in Big Time Throw Percentage. With Cousins incapable of airing it out, opposing linebackers have been able to creep up in coverage and consistently disrupt his throws into the flats.

Heading into Thursday night, expect Cousins to continue to move the ball down the field as he faces off against a Bucs defense who ranks in the top half of the board in Pass Rush Line Yards and in Def DVOA. Especially when he lacks the mobility that is needed to scramble out of the pocket as this will increase the amount of Havoc in his throws while under heavy pressure.

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