The Lions are allowing 1.36 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers, which is second-most in the league
Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs is second in team target share when tight end Sam LaPorta isn't on the field
The Lions have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in eight of 11 games this season
It's not only Week 13 of the NFL season, but it's also Thanksgiving week, which means we'll see three games on Thanksgiving Day. Leading things off are the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions, which have happened 23 times.
Heading into this game, the Packers are 7-3-1 and the Lions are 7-4. The Lions are the No. 8 seed in the NFC, while the Packers are the No. 6 seed. Both teams trail the Chicago Bears, who would be the No. 3 seed.
That said, both teams are in the top 10 in Super Bowl odds, with the Lions at +1100 and the Packers at +1500.
Additionally, both teams are inside the top 10 of our NFL Defense Rankings, with the Packers at No. 4 and the Lions at No. 9.
With all of this in mind, see my three best props for the Packers vs. Lions matchup.
Odds below for two props are courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook. Sign up for a Fanatics Sportsbook promo today and receive up to $2,000 in FanCash.
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| Best Packers vs. Lions Prop Bets | Odds | Claim Up to $2,000 in FanCash |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson Anytime TD | +200 | CLAIM HERE |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD | -195 | CLAIM HERE |
| Jordan Love 2+ Passing TDs | -105 | CLAIM HERE |
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The Packers' passing attack is middle of the pack over the course of the season, throwing for 222.5 passing yards per game, which ranks 14th in the NFL. That said, over the last three games, they’re averaging just 155.7 passing yards per game, which is 29th in that stretch.
However, I think they can buck that trend here, and Watson will find the end zone.
Over the last two games, Watson has been leading the Packers with a 26.1% team target share, catching nine of 12 passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Only tight end Josh Whyle has caught a touchdown besides Watson over the last two games.
Now, Watson will take on a Lions team that is allowing the second-most touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers at 1.36 per game. Additionally, wide receivers are also catching 10.91 passes on 18.91 targets for 150.36 yards per outing.
Watson is seeing a lot of targets lately, and over his career against the Lions, he’s averaging 21.3 yards per catch.
He’ll find the end zone on Thanksgiving Day.
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While the odds aren’t exactly filled with value at -195, the objective when wagering is to win, and Gibbs scoring a touchdown appears far too likely to pass up on.
The Lions are without tight end Sam LaPorta for perhaps the remainder of the season, and with him sidelined, Gibbs is seeing the second-most action in the passing game with a 22.3% team target share, catching 17 of 21 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown. Without LaPorta on the field, only Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Isaac TeSlaa have scored, and they each have one.
As for running the ball, Gibbs leads the Lions with 56.2% of running back carries. He’s averaging 18.5 touches per game (which includes catches).
Gibbs gets plenty of touches in both the passing and running game, and the Packers have allowed four rushing touchdowns to running backs over their last four games.
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Over the course of this season, the Lions play Cover-1 and Cover-3 more than anything else.
Against those coverages this season, Love is completing 64.8% of his passes for 1,419 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions.
This accounts for more than half of his touchdown passes and about 55.4% of his passing yards.
The Lions are allowing 1.82 passing touchdowns per game, which is fifth in the NFL. They’ve allowed multiple touchdown passes in eight of 11 games this season, including in three of the last four.
Love has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of 11 games, including two games ago against the New York Giants.
He is dealing with a shoulder injury, but he did manage to play in Week 12.
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