Best Steelers vs. Texans Prop Bets: Can Aaron Rodgers Out-Duel C.J. Stroud?

• The Steelers rank 26th in rushing yards, while the Texans have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards this season.

• Houston running back Woody Marks averages just 3.6 yards per carry.

• Dalton Schultz led the Texans this season with 82 receptions.

NFL Wild Card weekend will conclude with Monday’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Houston Texans. The Steelers barely made the playoffs, needing a missed field goal by the Ravens in Week 18 to capture the AFC North and secure a spot in the field. Meanwhile, the Texans overcame an 0-3 start to the season to finish 12-5. While that wasn’t enough to win the AFC South, the Texans will enter the playoffs on a nine-game winning streak, giving them a world of confidence.

Both teams figure to enter the postseason with a chip on their shoulder. Neither team is listed among the leading favorites to win Super Bowl LX. In fact, the Steelers have the longest odds to win the AFC, whereas the Texans have the third-shortest odds to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, as they appear to be trending in the right direction.

Best Steelers vs. Texans Prop Bets

At first glance, this is a tough game to call because the Texans are a slight favorite on the road. That’s why we decided to stick to player props for the Steelers-Texans matchup.

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Aaron Rodgers Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook 

More than likely, Pittsburgh’s chances in this game will hinge on the arm of Rodgers. The Steelers had to win four of their last five games to make the playoffs, and in four of those games, Rodgers threw at least 34 passes, including two games in which he had more than 40 pass attempts. Keep in mind, the Steelers finished the regular season ranked 26th in rushing yards, so their best chance in this game is likely to have Rodgers throw the ball close to 40 times.

It’s also worth noting that the Texans allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards in the league this season. That is even more evidence that the Steelers won’t be able to rely on their rushing attack to carry them in this game. Thus, Rodgers is likely to throw the ball at least 34 times, something he’s done in seven of his last 11 games anyway.

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Woody Marks Longest Rush Under 12.5 Yards (-115) at bet365 Sportsbook 

Like the Steelers, the Texans don’t have a prolific rushing attack. Woody Marks led the team in rushing this season, although he totaled just 703 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per carry. He also had just two carries of 20 yards or more all season. Marks doesn’t have a lot of explosive plays, making it a good idea to fade his longest rush.

To be fair, 12.5 yards is a low threshold for this prop bet. But Marks has only one carry for over 12.5 yards in his last four games. Likewise, the Steelers only allowed eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more all season. While Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t always great against the run, they don’t give up a lot of big plays, which makes us confident in fading Marks.

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Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 Receptions (-145) at bet365 Sportsbook

Schultz has been a key part of the Houston offense all season, and that isn’t going to change in the playoffs. He had a team-high 82 receptions during the regular season, which averages out to 4.8 catches per game. Granted, he’s only reached five catches in five of his last 10 games. But he also catches 77% of his targets, and since he’s used regularly, Schultz always has a chance to get to five or more catches.

This is a particularly good bet during the Wild Card Round because the Steelers struggle to defend tight ends. The Pittsburgh defense gives up 6.2 receptions per game against opposing tight ends. That’s the fourth-most in the NFL. Since none of Schultz’s backups are heavily involved in the passing game, there is a good chance he’ll have enough opportunities against the Steelers to catch at least five passes.

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