Super Bowl Overtime: What Are the Chances?

Overtime in the Super Bowl is one of the rarest events in American sports. This is relatively surprising considering there have been 59 big games, and only two have not been finished in regulation.

Super Bowl LI and Super Bowl LVIII were the two instant classics that finished in overtime. Both games are regarded as two of the best contests in NFL history.

Here, we will discuss each of those games and examine the chances of Sunday’s Patriots vs. Seahawks matchup not finishing in 60 minutes.

Super Bowl LI: Patriots vs. Falcons

Super Bowl LI marked Tom Brady’s improbable 28–3 comeback. The New England Patriots trailed the Atlanta Falcons 28–3 late in the third quarter, a deficit so large that overtime seemed impossible.

Yet the GOAT delivered on the biggest stage, leading an improbable comeback. By the end of regulation, the score was tied at 28–28, marking the first time in Super Bowl history that the game required overtime.

New England won the coin toss, marched down the field, and ended the game with a James White touchdown, completing the greatest comeback the Super Bowl has ever seen. Now, both teams have the chance to possess the ball in overtime.

Super Bowl LVIII

Seven years later, Super Bowl LVIII delivered overtime in a completely different fashion. Unlike the drastic swings of LI, the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers was defined by tension, defense, and narrow margins.

Neither team ever held a commanding lead, even though the 49ers controlled most of the game. Every possession felt magnified over four quarters.

When regulation ended tied at 19–19, it wasn’t surprising based on the game flow. Kansas City eventually prevailed thanks to a defensive stop and a Patrick Mahomes touchdown drive.

The Formula for Overtime

Despite how memorable these games are, they highlight just how difficult it is for a Super Bowl to reach overtime. The Super Bowl often features conservative decisions, longer possessions, and heightened awareness.

Teams manage the clock aggressively to avoid giving the opponent a final chance. The increased emphasis on ball control leads to fewer tied games.

So what does this history suggest about the likelihood of overtime in Super Bowl 60 between the Patriots and Seahawks?

FanDuel Sportsbook currently has OVERTIME – YES at +1200, while NO is set at -3500. The YES side implies a 7.69% chance of overtime, but the 4.5-point spread would indicate that this game won’t be close enough to reach overtime.

While anything can happen in the Super Bowl, if we don’t see too many turnovers in this game, possessions will be limited. Limited possessions will decrease the chances of a tie, especially with how competitive both defenses have been in 2025.

Drake Maye has been very efficient with the ball in his hands, and the Patriots have leaned on low-scoring wins. While these games have been close, offenses have struggled to score.

In the NFL, we usually see games go to overtime when both offenses are scoring consistently. This game has a chance of becoming a shootout, but that outcome is highly unlikely thanks to the defensive stars on both sides.

However, at 12-to-1 odds, it could be worth sprinkling a bet on Super Bowl 60 to go to overtime.

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