Why Turnovers Could Decide the Super Bowl for the Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks have done almost everything right to reach the Super Bowl, but they still have a severe turnover issue. 

Seattle finished the regular season second in giveaways, which is a concerning statistic for a team preparing to face a disciplined New England Patriots squad that thrives on capitalizing on mistakes.

Much of Seattle’s turnover problem traces back to quarterback Sam Darnold. While Darnold has been effective, he still has ball-security issues. 

Turnovers have decided Super Bowls in the past for these two teams. Here, we will discuss the turnover margin and why it’s so important for each team to control.

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Turnovers in the Last Patriots vs Seahawks Super Bowl

In Super Bowl XLIX, the Seahawks had the ball at the one-yard line with under one minute remaining in the game. Malcolm Butler ended up making one of the biggest plays in Super Bowl history forcing a Russell Wilson interception. 

The Seahawks decided to throw the ball when they could have run, and it cost them a Lombardi Trophy. If there was more care for the football, Tom Brady would have one less ring on his finger. 

This should be a lesson to the Seahawks heading into Super Bowl 60 on Sunday. If the Seahawks don’t concentrate on their turnover issue, it could cost them drastically. 

Turnover Differential Tells the Story

Seattle’s high giveaway total has often forced its defense to defend short fields, putting unnecessary pressure on the defense. While they have thrived, it’s still not ideal against New England. 

The Patriots have quietly built one of the most efficient turnover profiles in the NFL. New England relies on opponent mistakes, and the Seahawks will make them throughout games.

The Patriots rely on field position and patience. It’s how they have won in the playoffs so far this season. When opponents turn the ball over, New England strikes and puts their opponents in uncomfortable situations. 

If Seattle finishes this game negative in turnover differential, history suggests they will be fighting uphill all night and most likely lose the big game. 

Seattle wants Darnold attacking early while prioritizing the run. The Patriots will likely want to put all the pressure on Darnold in this game because he is most likely to make the most mistakes. 

If there is an interception or fumble early, New England doesn’t have to change their script. However, the Seahawks may be forced to play from behind and this isn’t something Darnold does well.

New England’s defense excels at disguising coverages and baiting quarterbacks into late throws, so Darnold will have a challenge on his hands. He has a history struggling against the Patriots, and this is a matchup that should be concerning for anyone betting on Seattle. 

Seattle Has Been Great in the Playoff

The Seahawks have taken much better care of the football in the playoffs. Darnold has been more selective, the coaching staff has leaned into safer concepts early, and Seattle has shown a clear understanding of what’s at stake.

The one way the Seahawks lose to the Patriots is if they turn the ball over consistently. They are a much better team, which is why they’re a 4.5-point favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook. 

If you believe Darnold will have a bad game, you can take him to throw an interception for -128. I’m leaning on him not to throw a pick for -102 and the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl.

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