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The Minnesota Vikings finally got off the hot seat in Week 4 with a road win against the winless Carolina Panthers. The Kansas City Chiefs also picked up a road win—albeit controversial—against the New York Jets.
Now, the Vikings head home to host the defending Super Bowl champions.
After reviewing the best NFL betting sites, we’ve found some intriguing wagers for this game.
Heading into Week 5, the Chiefs are 2-2 while the Vikings are 1-2-1 ATS.
The offenses are quite similar in comparing these teams, with the Vikings averaging 22.5 points and the Chiefs 25.3 points per game. Interestingly, the Vikings score more points on the road than at home, while the Chiefs score 10 points less on the road.
Looking at this matchup, we’ll have a fun wide receiver versus cornerback matchup with Justin Jefferson going up against Trent McDuffie. McDuffie has allowed 11 receptions on 17 targets this season for 111 yards and no touchdowns. Opposite Jefferson is rookie Jordan Addison, who’s coming off a one-target, no-reception outing.
The Vikings offensive line has played OK this season, especially at the tackle position. Still, Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones certainly has some favorable matchups against Vikings center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Ed Ingram.
The Chiefs draw a Vikings defense that’s young overall, especially with cornerback Akayleb Evans. He’ll match up against several Chiefs receivers, none of whom have emerged as the top guy in that rotation. Undrafted rookie linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. will see a lot of Travis Kelce in this one, and that’s a matchup Mahomes will look to exploit. Pace Jr. is an excellent pass rusher, but his coverage skills are questionable when he does cover. Kelce will also see time against Jordan Hicks, who’s allowed 11 receptions on 12 targets and a touchdown thus far.
Here are our top three picks for this game, head over to DraftKings to place your bets!
While the Vikings passing attack has proven valuable this season with Kirk Cousins at the helm, throwing for 344+ yards in each of his first three games, this offense is still a bit one-dimensional, as teams aren’t afraid of the rushing attack. The addition of Cam Akers should help, but this will be just his second game in this offense, regardless of how familiar he is with head coach Kevin O’Connell.
The Chiefs defense isn’t allowing many points to teams at just 12.75 per game (removing the pick-six in Week 1 and safety in Week 4).
Jones will be able to have his way with the interior of the Vikings offensive line while the Mahomes picks on an inexperienced Evans at cornerback and a beatable linebacker coverage unit that has to figure out a way to solve Kelce.
While we expect the Chiefs to win this game and cover the spread of -5, the Vikings passing attack is strong enough to stay in the game, even if behind. In the end, we expect a lopsided Chiefs victory, but we could see something similar to the Vikings Week 2 performance, where they had a backdoor cover and scored 28 points despite never really having a chance of winning the game.
Chiefs win this one 34-27.
We will see some points scored in this one, but identifying a big play is hard. Cousins is averaging 7.7 yards per attempt, and Mahomes is at 7.0. There are some players on each team capable of a big play, such as Jefferson and K.J. Osborn for the Vikings and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney for the Chiefs, but we haven’t seen any evidence of the Chiefs players making those big plays and the pressure from the Chiefs pass rush may not allow for someone like Osborn to get downfield, especially if he goes up against McDuffie who tends to play nickel.
The best shot at a big play will be a relatively short reception with many yards after the catch, but we won’t bank on that here.
*Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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