ATP Mutua Madrid Open Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

  • Tie-break the play when it comes to Isner
  • Ruud shouldn’t be underdog v FAA
  • In-form Norrie looks overpriced

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ATP Mutua Madrid Open 2021 Best Picks

Find the best picks for the Mutua Madrid Open right here. Click on the links below to head to your preferred sportsbook and place a bet.

First-set tie-break in John Isner v Miomir Kecmanovic at +240 at DraftKings Sportsbook and BetRivers

Casper Ruud to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime at -108 at BetMGM

Cameron Norrie to beat Filip Krajinovic at +170 at DraftKings Sportsbook and BetRivers

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win the Madrid Open at +350 at DraftKings Sportsbook and BetRivers

How to Watch ATP Mutua Madrid Open

ATP Mutua Madrid Open Information
What ATP Mutua Madrid Open
Where Madrid, Spain
When Sunday May 2 to Sunday May 9
How to Watch Tennis Channel

ATP Mutua Madrid Open Best Matchups

John Isner v Miomir Kecmanovic

Player Odds
John Isner +130
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Miomir Kecmanovic -162
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Madrid is well known for providing the fastest conditions of the spring claycourt season, sitting as it does at an altitude of around 700m above sea level.

The balls fly through the air quicker and while they are therefore more difficult to control off the ground, they play into the hands of the big servers.

Isner is arguably the biggest of those and his serving record here is something special.

In his last two visits to the Spanish capital, the American has dropped serve only twice across seven matches which have produced two quarter-final appearances.

He’s played 18 sets, 11 of which have gone to a tie-break and it is this statistic that points us towards a bet.

A first-set tie-break – the outcome in four of those seven Isner matches in Madrid – is on offer at +240 which looks more than fair.

Kecmanovic certainly isn’t a bad server and has thrived before in quicker conditions – he was the champion at altitude in Kitzbuhel last season and in 2019 played an ATP final on grass.

The fact this is the first meeting between the pair only increases the likelihood of a tie-break with there being every chance it takes the pair a few games to get some sort of read on the other’s serve.

Felix Auger-Aliassime v Casper Ruud

Player Odds
Felix Auger-Aliassime -115
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Casper Ruud -108
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Ruud took a beating off Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Munich semi-finals at the weekend but I don’t see why he’s priced up as the slight underdog in this match-up.

The Norwegian has made the semi-finals at the last two claycourt Masters events – Rome last year and Monte Carlo last month. In the latter event, he beat Diego Schwartzman, Pablo Carreno Busta, and Fabio Fognini.

Auger-Aliassime hasn’t beaten anyone in that class during the current European clay swing. In fact, when he’s come up against strong clay courters, he’s been well beaten – think Cristian Garin in Monte Carlo and Stefanos Tsitsipas in Barcelona.

Ruud’s Munich misery seemed to be brought about by an early argument with the umpire and I’m prepared to write off one bad day.

Looking positively, his week in Munich – at a similar altitude to Madrid – should have been decent preparation for this clash.

He’s a proven performer at altitude too, having made the final in Santiago in 2020 and the semis in Kitzbuhel the year before.

In short, I’m happy to back the better claycourt player at what looks like a good price of -108.

Cameron Norrie v Filip Krajinovic

Player Odds
Cameron Norrie +170
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Filip Krajinovic -215
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The in-form Norrie is another who looks too big to miss in this one.

The Briton is fresh off a final appearance in Estoril where he spoke bullishly about the state of his game, insisting his run to the final came as no surprise.

The obvious concern is the quick turnaround from the slower Estoril conditions to those at the Caja Magica but with Krajinovic having disappointed in recent weeks, Norrie looks overpriced at +170.

He’s beaten Karen Khachanov, David Goffin, Cristian Garin, and Marin Cilic in the past couple of weeks, results that Krajinovic simply can’t match.

Take Norrie to win what will be the pair’s first meeting.

Mutua Madrid Open Best Outright Pick

Stefanos Tsitsipas has made a flying start to the claycourt season, winning in Monte Carlo and finishing runner-up to Rafael Nadal in Barcelona where he missed a match point in the final.

In the absence of Novak Djokovic, Nadal is the odds-on favourite with most firms this week but the quicker conditions in Madrid don’t suit him as much as those elsewhere. His record of four titles from 11 visits to the Caja Magica is far from bad but it’s nowhere near his return in Monte Carlo and Rome.

Tsitsipas, therefore, looks like a decent alternative at +350.

He beat Nadal here two years ago before losing the final to Djokovic and his strong serve should make him tough to break this week.

The fourth seed is in the opposite half of the draw to Nadal with the higher seed being Daniil Medvedev, who does not like playing on this surface. He’s also returning after several weeks of inactivity having contracted COVID-19.

Tsitsipas looks a worthy favourite to make the final in this section and if Nadal lies in wait, he knows he’s capable of living with the Spaniard.

Mutua Madrid Open – Round Two Upsets?

Looking further ahead, it’s worth mentioning a couple of seeds who could be vulnerable in their opening match having received a first-round bye.

Medvedev’s disrupted preparation has already been mentioned above and if he plays Alejandro Davidovich Fokina first up, the Russian’s dislike of the clay could come to the fore.

Fokina has been in fine form on clay of late, reaching the last eight in Monte Carlo last month and the last four in Estoril last week.

Diego Schwartzman is another who may struggle.

He’s likely to face Aslan Karatsev in his opening match of the tournament, one where the conditions will likely be a bit on the fast side for the Argentine, who has struggled for results in the past few weeks – he’s 2-2 since hitting the European clay.

Karatsev has been one of the stories of the season so far with his Australian Open semi-final run long since backed up, most recently with a final appearance on the clay of Belgrade.

His big-hitting game should cause problems for Schwartzman in these conditions should they meet.

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Andy Schooler

Expert on Tennis

Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.