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US Open Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

Written by: Dave Tindall
Updated October 14, 2022
11 min read
Us Open Golf
  • The second major of the year occupies a September slot after June cancellation
  • The tournament takes place at revered Winged Foot GC in New York
  • World No.1 Dustin Johnson the betting favorite to win his second US Open

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US Open Odds

Player Odds
Dustin Johnson +800
Jon Rahm +900
Justin Thomas +1200
Xander Schauffele +1400
Rory McIlroy +1600
Collin Morikawa +1600
Webb Simpson +2500
Bryson DeChambeau +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Daniel Berger +3000
Patrick Cantlay +3000


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US Open Odds Picks and Predictions

Patrick Reed loves big events and can claim his second major. Back him at +3500 with bet365 for the win.

Tony Finau’s star is in the ascendancy and his record in majors is superb. He can get the better of Rickie Fowler in a 72-hole match bet -134 DraftKings Sportsbook.

Louis Oosthuizen has made the top 20 in five of his last nine majors. The South African can add another top 20 at +300 with DraftKings Sportsbook.


Patrick Reed to win +3500 at bet365

Tony Finau to beat Rickie Fowler in a match-bet -134 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Louis Oosthuizen to land a top 20 +300 at DraftKings Sportsbook

How to Watch the US Open

US Open Information
What 120th US Open
Where Winged Foot Golf Course, Mamaroneck, NY
When Thursday, September 17 – Sunday, September 20
How to Watch Thursday 7.30am-2pm ET (Golf Channel), 2pm-5pm (NBC), Friday 7.30am-9.30am (Golf Channel), 9.30am-4pm (NBC), Saturday 11am-7.30pm (NBC), Sunday 10am-12pm (Golf Channel), 12pm-6pm (NBC). All 4 days on Sky Sports

US Open Profile

The US Open used to have a clear identity: it was the toughest, most brutal of the four majors. Indeed, when Tiger Woods won with 12-under at Pebble Beach in 2000, he became the first player in over 100 years to finish at double digits under par. But Tiger was a freak and that week he produced freakish golf. He won by 15, leaving the runner-up score of 3-over as a truer reflection of how Pebble played.

However, in the previous decade, times changed. Rory McIlroy took advantage of a soft Congressional to win with a new record of 16-under in 2011 and Brooks Koepka matched that score at Erin Hills in 2017.

Gary Woodland then fired 13-under to triumph at Pebble Beach last year.

That meant the last six US Opens were won with a combined 46-under-par. Contrast that with the six played from 2005 to 2010 when the aggregate came in at 5-over. And yet, this could be the week when we see a return to a more old-school US Open.

Winged Foot – a brutal 7,477-yard par 70 – is famous for producing high scores and the last US Open played there in 2006 saw Geoff Ogilvy triumph with 5-over after Phil Mickelson and Colin Montgomerie cracked on the final hole. Both made double bogey and lost by one.

Several of the top players have played recent practice rounds at the A.W. Tillinghast classic and Justin Thomas made these remarks about Winged Foot: “It is probably the most US Open venue that I’ve seen. It checks all the boxes. It’s long. It’s narrow fairways. Going to be long rough and severe greens.”

Tiger’s take? “It’s right up there next to Oakmont and Carnoustie, as for sheer difficulty. Those courses can host major championships without having to do anything.”

This looks definitely a case of who will be the last man standing; some will love the war of attrition while others will find excuses and dismiss it as unfair.

Reed Ready For Second Major

Winning a US Open on a course like Winged Foot requires an iron will. Any prospective champion must be prepared to go the extra mental mile. And while he makes more headlines for his fiery side, Patrick Reed definitely has the tools, self-belief, and ability to go into the zone when it matters most. The evidence can be found with a glance at his trophy cabinet.

When Reed wins, he wins big. Not for him low-key events when the elite isn’t playing.

So, in the last six years, he has a major (2018 Masters), two World Golf Championship events (2014 WGC-Cadillac and 2020 WGC-Mexico), and a pair of FedEx Cup playoff victories.

It’s worth noting that the latter two – the 2016 Barclays and 2019 Northern Trust – both came in this part of the United States so Reed thrives in the NY/NJ region. As well as mental strength, he also possesses the ultra-sharp short game which so often makes the difference in the biggest events.

Like everyone, he’ll have to lean on it heavily at Winged Foot and the good news is that it appears in great health.

Reed ranked 1st for Scrambling when tied seventh at the Tour Championship two weeks ago and, with hitting fairways likely to be another key, it must be noted that he was also 1st for Driving Accuracy in that East Lake showdown.

Tied fourth in the 2018 US Open at nearby Shinnecock, Reed can outrun his odds and land victory at a mouthwatering +3500.

Take Finau Over Fowler

There are plenty of opportunities this week to try and improve this column’s run of 11 winning match bets out of 12. And the one I like best is Tony Finau to outgun Rickie Fowler. Finau has become a specialist in the majors, crashing the top ten in six of the last nine. That run continued with an excellent T4 in the PGA Championship last month.

Fowler carried the mantle of the best player not to have won a major but the feeling that it’s his turn soon has somewhat diminished in recent times.

The Californian has slipped to 38th in the world rankings having previously peaked at 4th and hasn’t managed a single top ten since golf restarted in June. Finau is going the other way. He’s currently 16th and has bagged plenty of OWGR points with four top eights in his last seven events.

One of those was solo fifth in extremely tough conditions at the BMW Championship two starts ago (Fowler hadn’t qualified for that event) and should serve Finau well this week as he prepares to dig deep at Winged Foot.

The man from Utah has both the game and temperament to have a strong week and, having beaten Fowler in five of the last eight majors, he looks a great bet to make it six in nine.

Take Finau at -134 with DraftKings Sportsbook..

Oosthuizen Can Crack Top 20

Louis Oosthuizen is best known for winning the 2010 Open Championship and losing a play-off at The Masters in 2012 having made albatross earlier in the final round. But his most consistent major is the US Open.

South Africans seem to like this event – Ernie Els and Retief Goosen are dual winners – and Oosthuizen is upholding the tradition. He overcame a poor start to finish runner-up at Chambers Bay in 2015 and has since posted 23-23-16-7 in the four subsequent US Opens. Rewind to Congressional in 2011 and he was T9.

With two top 20s in his last four PGA Tour starts and five top 20s in his last nine majors, he looks a great bet to add another here at +300 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Dave Tindall

109 Articles

Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.

Email: [email protected]

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