Surprisingly, you won’t find any of the top six home run hitters in baseball among our targets for Wednesday. Keep in mind that home run props aren’t always about picking the best power hitters. Often, it’s about finding the right matchups, which is what we’ve done on Wednesday to find the most value.
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Lowe can sometimes get overlooked in Tampa’s lineup because the Rays have other big-time sluggers. But it’ll be Lowe’s time to shine on Wednesday when the Rays face A’s youngster J.T. Ginn. In just 53.1 innings this season, Ginn has allowed 12 home runs, including three long balls in just 9.1 innings in August.
Left-handed hitters are slugging .586 against him, while righties sit at .345. That leads us to Lowe, who is Tampa’s best left-hand-hitting power hitter. Not only does Lowe have 23 homers this year, but he has four home runs and three multi-hit games in his last seven games. He’s hot right now and a good bet to do damage against Ginn.
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We missed Alonso’s big night on Tuesday, as he hit two home runs, passing Daryl Strawberry for the Mets' all-time home run lead with the first one. He has a chance to keep it going on Wednesday against Carlos Carrasco, a former teammate. While Alonso has never faced Carrasco, Atlanta’s starter has a 6.18 ERA this year, with right-handed hitters slugging .645.
Alonso’s two homers on Tuesday were no fluke. Despite New York’s recent losing streak, Alonso is hitting .350 with six home runs in August. That includes going 6 for 13 with three home runs in his last three games, so there is reason to believe more homers are coming from Alonso’s bat in the near future.
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Washington’s Jake Irvin has allowed 26 home runs this season. Only Zack Littell has allowed more. That means we have to target someone on the Royals, especially since Irvin has posted a 7.71 ERA and given up three home runs over his first two starts in August.
Most of Irvin’s homers have been hit by left-handed hitters, which leads us straight to Pasquantino. Granted, Pasquantino is Kansas City’s best power hitter with 21 home runs this season, including two of his last three games. All but two of those 21 homers have come against right-handed pitchers, so everything is aligned for Pasquantino to homer again on Wednesday.
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This is a deep cut, but it might be worth taking a flier on Andujar. Granted, Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez has allowed just 10 homers this season, so he’s a tough egg to crack. However, Andujar is 3 for 3 in his career against Sanchez.
Also, despite recently missing time on the IL, Andujar has rediscovered himself this year. He’s batting .303 with eight homers in just 69 games. Andujar is also 6 for 15 with two home runs during his current five-game hitting streak, so he’s in a nice groove and should be considered a threat to go deep again on Wednesday.
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