When making home run props, it’s best not to stick to a theme or narrative. However, it just so happens that all of our options for Monday are left-handed hitters. Of course, each of them has serious power and is facing a pitcher who’s had trouble giving up the long ball to lefties, which makes us confident with these picks.
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Sitting at 45 home runs, Schwarber is as good a bet as anybody to hit a home run on any given day. Granted, he’s coming off a series against the Nationals in which he went 0 for 9. But Schwarber still has eight home runs in August, so he can flip a switch and get back on track at any moment.
On paper, Monday’s matchup against Kodai Senga looks like a tough one. He’s just 1 for 7 in his career against Senga, although that one hit was a home run. Plus, Senga has given up at least one home run in six straight starts, so he’s been vulnerable to the long ball. Most of those homers have been hit by left-handed hitters, and since Schwarber is the only player on Philly’s roster with a previous home run over Senga, he has the best chance.
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Carpenter has been easy to overlook in Detroit’s lineup, but he’s been having a great season that has included 22 home runs. He has genuine power, including five home runs in August. Monday’s matchup against J.T. Ginn is also a favorable one for Carpenter, who is 2 for 4 against Ginn.
The 26-year-old Ginn has conceded 13 home runs in just 60 innings this season. Most of those have come with the A’s at home and been hit by left-handed hitters, who are slugging .633 against Ginn. Those factors point to Carpenter being the most likely Detroit hitter to go deep on Monday.
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The Yankees are playing at home against a right-handed starter on Monday, which puts their left-handed sluggers in an advantageous position to go deep. Of course, there are plenty of options among that group, especially since most have never faced Washington starter Brad Lord. But we view Bellinger as the best option.
Even though Trent Grisham and Jazz Chisholm homered on Sunday, Bellinger actually has the most homers at Yankee Stadium this season (other than Aaron Judge). He’s been able to take advantage of the short porch in right field. Plus, Bellinger is less than a week removed from a two-homer game.
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Over the past week, Pasquantino has been the best home run hitter in baseball. He’s launched a home run in six of his last seven games. Such a hot streak is unsustainable in the long run. But until he starts to cool off, it’d be foolish to bet against Pasquantino hitting another home run on Monday.
The Royals are facing Shane Smith, who is fresh off giving up two homers in his last start. Of the 13 home runs Smith has allowed this year, 10 have come against left-handed hitters. With Pasquantino slugging .512 against righties, this is a favorable matchup, especially for a hitter who’s batting .379 in his last seven games.
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