For Tuesday, three of our four picks for home run targets won’t come as a surprise. Three of them have hit at least 30 homers this season and have a chance to add to that total. But there is also an overlooked hitter who’s red-hot right now and offers great value.
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Among Seattle’s many home run threats, Suarez stands out on Tuesday. The Mariners are facing San Diego’s Dylan Cease, and Suarez is 4 for 11 with two home runs in his career against Cease. Keep in mind that Cease has already allowed 19 home runs season and has been tagged for multiple home runs on a few occasions.
Outside of the favorable matchup, Suarez is sitting at 40 home runs on the season. Granted, he’s struggled a little since being traded to the Mariners. But he also has three home runs in his last nine games, so he’s coming around with his power and should be able to take advantage of his good track record against Cease.
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Unfortunately for Judge, he’s hit just three home runs since returning from injury earlier this month. However, he does have a pair of doubles over his last three games. The power is there, and he just needs the right matchup to unleash it.
Judge might get that matchup on Tuesday against Washington’s Mackenzie Gore. He’s 3 for 5 with two home runs in his career against Gore, which is a small sample size but an impressive track record. Judge also has a much higher slugging percentage against lefties, while Gore has predictably given up most of his home runs against right-handed hitters, so everything is lining up for Judge to go deep on Tuesday.
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It’s time to pick on Patrick Corbin, who has given up a home run in four consecutive starts. The kicker is that Corbin has only covered 13.1 innings across those four starts, so he’s giving up a home run every three innings during that stretch. Naturally, right-handed hitters have done the most damage against him.
While Mike Trout and Jo Adell are also options, Ward has better career numbers against Corbin than either one. He’s 6 for 15 with a double and a home run in his career against Corbin. With 30 homers on the season, including one on Sunday, Ward is well-positioned to unleash another deep ball on Tuesday against Corbin.
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Turang has just 14 home runs this season, so he’s not among the usual targets for a home run prop. That being said, he’s been raging hot lately. Turang has an eight-game hitting streak and is batting .354 in August. He’s also hit eight of his 14 home runs since August 3, so he should be looked at as one of the top power hitters, at least for now.
The other factor to consider is that Turang and the Brewers face Brandon Pfaadt on Tuesday. Turang is 2 for 4 in his career against Pfaadt, which doesn’t hurt. More importantly, with 21 home runs allowed this season, Pfaadt is one of the most vulnerable pitchers in baseball when it comes to giving up home runs, putting Turang in a good position to add to his incredible power numbers in August.
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