Making home run props is no different than any other type of prop bet. You have to look for value. That’s what we did on Wednesday, finding hitters with odds that don’t necessarily reflect how they’ve performed lately or the favorable matchups they have today. That led us to find some familiar names but also one or two surprises.
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The odds for Wednesday’s home runs props are from FanDuel Sportsbook. For anyone who doesn’t have a FanDuel account already, you are eligible to receive $300 in bonus bets by signing up and winning your first bet.
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On any given day, if you can get Raleigh with +250 odds to hit a home run, take them. He’s hit 50 of them this season, including eight during August, so he can go deep at any time. With three homers in his last three games, there is incredible value in betting on Raleigh to go deep while he appears to be in a groove.
On Wednesday, Raleigh and the Mariners face Yu Darvish, who has struggled in terms of giving up homers lately. In August, Darvish has given up five home runs across just 20 innings. Raleigh has one previous homer against Darvish in just eight at-bats, so it’s not far-fetched to think he can do it again.
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Carminero is just one home run away from his 40th of the season. The 22-year-old rookie has already hit 12 home runs in August, including four in his last four games. He’s just two days removed from a four-hit game that included two homers, so he’s scorching hot at the moment.
Granted, Caminero has never faced Slade Cecconi, who starts for the Guardians on Wednesday. But Cecconi has given up at least one home run in nine of his last 10 starts, including four starts in which he’s allowed multiple homers. At least one Tampa hitter is bound to take him deep, with Caminero being the best option.
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Carson Whisenhunt starts for the Giants on Wednesday, which is a good omen for Suzuki and the Cubs. Across his first 18.1 innings in the big leagues, the southpaw has allowed five home runs. Four of those five home runs have been hit by right-handed hitters, making Suzuki the best option in Chicago’s lineup to take Whisenhunt deep.
Suzuki has hit 27 home runs this season, with nine coming against lefties. He’s slugging .522 against southpaws, which is higher than his .460 slugger percentage against righties. Despite a subpar month of August thus far, Suzuki has a three-game hitting streak, so he’s showing signs of coming around and has a favorable matchup on Wednesday.
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The version of Vientos that made a huge impact for the Mets last September and October has started to show up lately. He’s put together a nine-game hitting streak, hitting five homers during that stretch. That makes him someone to target for a home run prop while he’s in a groove.
Vientos and the Mets will face Taijuan Walker on Wednesday. While Vientos has just four career at-bats against Walker, he has two hits, including a home run. Walker has been vulnerable to the long ball this year, giving up 15 homers in just 96.2 innings of work. Right-handed hitters have actually done more damage against Walker, so there is every reason to believe that Vientos can stay hot against him and show off his power.
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