Labor Day is a great day for home run props. The list of players we like to go deep could have been far longer. However, we decided to limit it to the four players we like the most and who bring the best value on Monday.
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The odds for Monday’s home run props are from FanDuel Sportsbook. If you don’t have a FanDuel account already, now is a good time because if new customers win their first bet after signing up, they receive $300 worth of bonus bets.
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Almost anyone in Seattle’s lineup is a decent option for a home run prop on Monday. The Mariners are facing Shane Baz, who has a 5.17 ERA and has given up 27 home runs. Only half a dozen pitchers in baseball have given up more long balls this year.
Baz has struggled the most at home, where 18 of those long balls have been hit. Also, right-handed hitters have done the most damage, which points us to Suarez despite never having faced Baz before. Suarez hasn’t quite been himself since the trade to Seattle, but he still hit six homers in August to give him 42 on the season, and +330 odds for a player like that are too good to ignore.
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The Mariners-Rays game could see multiple home runs on both sides, because Tampa has some good home run prop options as well. Lowe is the best option on the Rays after hitting three home runs in his last four games. After a sluggish July in which he missed time with an injury, Lowe hit nine home runs in August, putting him in a groove.
Meanwhile, Lowe has great numbers against Luis Castillo, who starts for the Mariners. He’s 3 for 8 with a double and a home run in a small sample size against Castillo. Equally important, Castillo gave up eight home runs over just 24.1 innings in August, so he can’t seem to keep good hitters in the ballpark.
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For a player with 27 home runs this year, Yelich has rather long odds to hit a home run on Monday, giving him incredible value. Facing Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker plays right into Yelich’s hands. Yelich is 5 for 10 with a double and a home run in his career against Walker, so this is a favorable matchup for him.
Plus, Yelich is coming off a month in which he hit .323 with seven home runs. After a long home run drought, Yelich went deep on Saturday, putting his power back on track. While Walker only gave up one home run in August, there are periods when he’s given them up in bunches, so we’re happy to bet on a player like Yelich, who has a great track record against him.
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The Mets had a horrible weekend, but you can’t blame Soto for that. He hit 10 home runs in August, including three in his last three games. In fact, Soto is 5 for 9 with three home runs over his last three games, making him a player to target while he’s red hot.
Facing Charlie Morton on Monday is another reason to target Soto, who is 8 for 14 with three home runs in his career against Morton. While Soto has also drawn eight walks from Morton, it’s tough to pitch around Soto with Pete Alonso right behind him. Morton has had a few rough outings since being traded to the Tigers, pointing to trouble against Soto, given his track record against him.
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