Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Caminero Set to Capitalize on Allen’s Struggles

The Rays won’t make the playoffs this season, but they have found a bona fide star in Junior Caminero. The young third baseman has broken out to post 40 home runs this season, giving the AL East team a piece to build around. Below, we’ll share why we like him to go deep tonight, along with two other home run props we are locking in today.

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Home Run Picks for Thursday, September 4

Junior Caminero Anytime Home Run (+220) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Rays' third baseman has found their new star in Junior Caminero. The 22-year-old has 40 home runs and 100 RBIs, with most of his success coming at home. When playing at Tampa’s temporary stadium, Caminero is batting .327 with 21 home runs and a 1.000 OPS. 

We are willing to put money on Caminero to go deep whenever he’s at home; there is even more reason to do so today. That’s because the Guardians will be sending struggling Logan Allen (7-10, 4.42 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) to the mound to start tonight. While it looked like the young starter finally figured things out in July, he went 0-1 with a 5.96 ERA across five starts in August. While Logan isn’t known for giving up home runs, he has allowed four over his previous two starts (11 innings).

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Bobby Witt Jr. Anytime Home Run (+280) at Caesars Sportsbook

Bobby Witt Jr. will finish the season with some very disappointing stats, but the shortstop has once again been playing like an MVP over the last two months. Since July 1, Witt is batting .317 with nine home runs and 31 RBIs. 

Witt will be facing Kyle Hendricks (6-9, 4.89 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) and the Angels at home tonight. The veteran starter has been awful in 2025, and especially bad over the last two months. While he closed out August with a stellar start against the Astros, he still finished the month 0-2 with a 5.46 ERA. 

Once Hendricks is chased out of this game, he will be turning things over to an Angels bullpen that owns the third-highest ERA (4.80) in the league.

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William Contreras Anytime Home Run (+380) at Caesars Sportsbook

William Contreras has gone from being a liability at the plate to being the Crew’s best hitter. He posted nine home runs in August to go with 24 RBIs. He’s been especially great in the clutch, with a .300 average with runners in scoring position. We expect him to deliver another great outing today with a familiar foe on the mound.

Don’t be fooled by Ranger Suarez’s (10-6, 3.02 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) impressive stats, as he has struggled since returning from the IL. He’s posted a 4.27 since returning on July 5, losing the edge that had made him an ace over the last two seasons. While he has allowed just one run in his last start, he gave up ten hits and a walk over just five innings. The Braves let him off the hook several times, but the league-best Brewers won’t do that this afternoon.

Contreras has dominated his rivalry with Suarez, posting a 1.322 with three home runs over 22 at-bats.

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