There are some days when home run props are more about pitchers than hitters. Tuesday is one of those days, as we found a few pitchers who are particularly vulnerable to the long ball. Based on that, we found someone on the opposing team poised to take them deep.
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Raleigh continues to be the favorite to be the home run king in 2025. He’s already hit three home runs in his first seven games of September. That gives him 53 homers on the season and makes him a solid bet on any given day to go deep again.
With lefty Matthew Liberatore starting against the Mariners on Tuesday, Raleigh is a prime target. Despite never facing Liberatore before, keep in mind that 20 of Raleigh’s 53 home runs have come against left-handed pitchers, doing so in nearly 200 fewer at-bats than he’s had against righties. The switch-hitting Raleigh has a .675 slugging percentage against lefties, which is the best time to target him.
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The hits aren’t exactly flowing for Kurtz at the moment. He’s just 4 for 22 in September, barely keeping his season average over .300. However, the rookie’s power isn’t going anywhere, with two of those four hits in September being home runs. Kurtz also has a higher percentage of home runs in home games this season, so his power should continue after his first two September homers came on the road.
Meanwhile, Boston’s Dustin May has had difficulty keeping the ball in the park this season, yielding 21 homers. His last four starts have all been Red Sox losses and included five total home runs. Left-handed hitters have done most of the damage against him, which also leads us to target Kurtz.
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With Zack Littell starting on Tuesday, it makes sense to target someone on the opposing team. Littell has allowed a league-high 34 home runs. The Blue Jays launched four long balls against him over just 4.1 innings in his last start, so the problem isn’t getting any better.
Of course, several San Diego hitters have good career numbers against Littell, so the choice is difficult. We chose Tatis in part because he’s 3 for 6 against Littell, albeit with no extra-base hits. Tatis also has a five-game hitting streak that has included two home runs, so he’s among the best hitters in San Diego’s lineup right now.
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This is something of a deep cut because not everyone knows much about Miami’s 23-year-old catcher. But Ramirez has put together a solid season that has included 19 home runs. While he’s yet to go deep in September, it’s worth noting that Ramirez is 3 for 6 with two home runs in his career against Mitchell Parker, who starts for the Nationals against Miami on Tuesday.
On top of giving up two homers to Ramriez, Parker has allowed 23 total home runs this year. He’s allowed at least one homer in seven straight starts, yielding 10 total home runs during that stretch. With a 5.87 ERA on the season, there is every reason to believe that Parker’s woes will continue and that Ramirez can take him deep for a third time this year.
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