The final week of the MLB regular season has arrived. Of course, with just three games on Monday’s schedule, this is one of the toughest days of the year to pick home run props. But even with limited options, we have dug deep to find the best home run targets.
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The home runs haven’t been coming quite so frequently for Yelich over the last several weeks. However, the former MVP has 29 homers on the season, and he’s bound to reach 30 sooner or later. His bat has started to come around, as he has three multi-hit games over his last five starts, hitting two doubles and a home run during that span.
Monday’s matchup with Nick Pivetta is also a favorable one for him. Yelich is 6 for 16 with two doubles and two home runs in his career against Pivetta. Those are solid numbers and a sign that Yelich’s bat speed matches up well with Pivetta’s stuff. Pivetta also gave up three homers in his last start and has allowed at least one in seven of his last nine starts, putting Yelich in a good spot.
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St. Louis starter Michael McGreevy has been a tough customer all year in terms of giving up home runs. However, when he faced the Giants earlier this month, McGreevy gave up back-to-back home runs in the first inning. One of those was against Devers, which is why we like the matchup with McGreevy on Monday.
On top of his two hits against McGreevy in that game, Devers is San Francisco’s best power hitter with 32 on the season, split between his time with the Red Sox and his time with the Giants. Despite a .178 average in September, Devers snapped a 13-game homerless streak on Saturday, which is a great sign for someone who tends to hit homers in bunches.
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With a modest 16 home runs this season, Albies isn’t an obvious target for home run props. But the switch-hitting second baseman has always thrived against left-handed pitchers. That includes going 5 for 15 with two doubles and a home run against MacKenzie Gore, who starts against Albies and the Braves on Monday.
Gore has handled lefties, but most of the home runs he’s allowed this season have come against right-handed batters. Since Marcell Ozuna has lacked any power in recent weeks and Matt Olson has never homered against Gore in 20 at-bats, that leaves Albies as the best home run candidate in Atlanta’s lineup.
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As the odds suggest, this is something of a long shot. Bell and the Nationals face Chris Sale, who has allowed just nine home runs in 115 innings this season. To be fair, seven of those nine have been hit by right-handed batters, giving the switch-hitting Bell a chance.
While he has just three hits in 13 career at-bats against Sale, one of those hits is a home run. Not surprisingly, those are better numbers than anyone else on Washington’s roster has against Sale. With 20 home runs on the season and a five-game hitting streak, Bell is in decent shape to go deep on Monday.
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