Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Desperation Breeds Home Runs for Home Teams Facing Elimination

The first day of the MLB postseason was an interesting day for home runs. The first three games of the day produced just three total home runs, only for the Dodgers to hit five in the nightcap. For Wednesday, we’ve managed to pinpoint several good power hitters with favorable matchups. Coincidentally, three of them are playing for teams facing elimination, putting extra pressure on them to deliver a big hit.

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Home Run Picks for Wednesday, October 1

Jose Ramirez Anytime Home Run (+460) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It was a brutal day for the Cleveland lineup on Tuesday. But with the Guardians facing elimination, look for their star player to step up and provide some offensive fireworks. Ramirez provided one of the team’s four hits yesterday and has at least one hit in 13 of his last 15 games.

More importantly, Ramirez has owned Detroit starter Casey Mize in his career. He’s 5 for 10 with two home runs in his career against Mize. Since Ramirez also had 30 home runs during the season, he’s Cleveland’s best option to hit a home run that can help turn the season around.

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Cody Bellinger Anytime Home Run (+560) at FanDuel Sportsbook

All of the ingredients are there for Bellinger to go deep on Wednesday. For starters, he’s 4 for 10 with two home runs in his career against Boston’s Brayan Bello, who takes the ball in Game 2. Beyond that, 21 of his 29 home runs this season were against right-handed pitchers.

Of course, playing at Yankee Stadium is also a factor. Not surprisingly, Bellinger hit 18 of his 29 homers at home, on top of having far better overall offensive numbers in his home ballpark. Given his track record against Bello, there is tremendous value in backing Bellinger on Wednesday.

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Jazz Chisholm Anytime Home Run (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Many of the reasons why Bellinger is a good home run target also apply to Chisholm. He also had far better offensive numbers at home this season. Chisholm also hit 25 of his 31 homers against right-handed pitchers, so facing Bello should come as a relief after the Yankees struggled against Garrett Crochet on Tuesday.

While his numbers aren’t quite as impressive as Bellinger’s, Chisholm is 5 for 15 with a home run in his career against Bello. That’s better than most of New York’s hitters. Despite being hitless and playing erratically over the last week, Chisholm had five home runs in September, so he can break out at any time.

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Teoscar Hernandez Anytime Home Run (+300) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Hernandez had two of the Dodgers’ five home runs in Game 1, so why not bet on him to run it back in Game 2? For the record, we had Hernandez targeted for a home run prop before Tuesday’s game. The biggest reason for that is that Cincinnati’s starter on Wednesday is Zack Littell, who gave up the second-most homers in baseball this season.

After the way the Dodgers began the series, there have to be more home runs coming against Littell. Hernandez hit 19 of his 25 homers during the regular season against right-handed pitchers, while right-handed hitters had a better slugging percentage against Littell than righties, making this a good matchup for Hernandez. Also, when Hernandez had a two-homer game in September, he followed it up with another long ball the next day.

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