For Tuesday’s ALDS games, we’ve picked out one home run target on every team. In most cases, it was rather self-explanatory which player to target. That might sound simple, but targeting some of the biggest stars to hit a home run on Tuesday makes all the sense in the world.
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Seattle’s Logan Gilbert has been good this season, but he’s also been vulnerable to the long ball. He’s allowed at least one home run in nine of his last 10 starts, so there is every reason to believe he’ll give up one on Tuesday. Gilbert has also been a lot more average and given up more homers on the road, so he’s vulnerable in Detroit.
Greene is also the perfect option because he’s Detroit’s best power hitter and has a great track record against Gilbert. While he doesn’t have a homer against him, Greene is 5 for 12 in his career against Gilbert. Greene is also 6 for 20 with two doubles in the playoffs, so he’s trending toward a home run.
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It’s tough to pick just one member of the Mariners to hit a home run. Jorge Polanco is among the least likely options, yet he went deep twice in Game 2. That makes us think Suarez could be the one to git a homer in Game 3 despite being hitless in five straight games with two strikeouts in each of those five games.
All that aside, don’t forget that Suarez hit 49 home runs this season. He also seemed to catch fire in late September. More importantly, he’s 6 for 25 with three home runs in his career against Detroit’s Jack Flaherty. That’s a lot of homers in very few at-bats, so we’ll take our chances with Suarez in Game 3.
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With their backs against the wall, the Yankees need Judge to be the player to step up and deliver. He’s done his part so far, going 4 for 7 with a double in the first two games. Overall, Judge is 8 for 18 (.444) in the playoffs thus far. All that’s missing is a home run, which should be coming soon.
The caveat is that Judge is just 1 for 13 in his career against Shane Bieber, who starts for the Blue Jays on Tuesday. The silver lining is that one hit was a home run. Also, Bieber has given up six home runs over his last four starts, with right-handed hitters slugging .595 against him, which points to Judge finally going deep.
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Targeting Guerrero on Tuesday is the easiest home run prop ever. He’s 6 for 9 with two home runs over the first two games of this series. You can’t get much hotter than that, so it’d be foolish not to ride the hot hand.
The kicker is that Guerrero has a phenomenal track record against Carlos Rodon, who starts for the Yankees. He’s 10 for 17 with three doubles and a home run in his career against Rodon. No matter how well Rodon has pitched down the stretch, those numbers are too good to ignore, especially after how Guerrero has performed over the first two games.
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