Game 3 of the ALCS is the only game scheduled for Wednesday, so the options for home run targets are limited. Luckily, this series has already produced five home runs over the first two games. Since the Mariners are responsible for four of those five homers, we’re leaning heavily toward them, especially since they are coming home and have the momentum of the series in their favor.
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It’s been a little bit of a struggle for Suarez, who is batting just .138 during the playoffs. However, he does have a home run, and hitting for a low average doesn’t prevent Suarez from being a power threat. In September. Suarez batted just .190 but still managed to hit seven home runs.
Suarez is also the only member of the Mariners to homer previously against Toronto starter Shane Bieber. While he’s just 4 for 18 in his career against Bieber, two of those four hits have gone for extra bases. With at least one hit in four of his last five games, Suarez should be considered a power threat.
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The Blue Jays have a tough matchup against George Kirby in Game 3, so we only have one home run target from their lineup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would be the obvious target, but he’s cooled off since his fast postseason start, going hitless in the first two games of the ALCS. That leads us to Springer, who has done nothing but hit for power during the playoffs.
Springer has just five hits in six postseason games. However, all five have been extra-base hits, including two home runs. He also has a solid track record against Kirby, going 3 for 8 with a double. Between that and the power he’s showcased during the postseason, Springer is Toronto’s best bet to go deep in Game 3.
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Just to be upfront, Rodriguez is just 1 for 9 in his career against Bieber. However, right-handed hitters have had more success against Bieber than lefties. While left-handed hitters are slugging just .247 against him, righties are slugging .595. That’s why Suarez and Rodriguez offer more value than Cal Raleigh in Game 3.
It helps that Rodriguez hit 32 home runs during the regular season, providing a legitimate power threat. Rodriguez was quiet late in the ALDS, going 0 for 14 with seven strikeouts over Games 3, 4, and 5. But he’s coming around again, going 2 for 6 with a home run and three walks over the first two games of the ALCS, so he’s trending in the right direction.
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At this point, it seems worthwhile to take a shot on Polanco in any game. He’s already hit three home runs during the postseason, including one in Game 2. Polanco is also 4 for 9 overall during the ALCS, so he’s seeing the ball against Toronto’s pitchers.
Keep in mind that Polanco hit 26 homers during the regular season, so his postseason success isn’t a fluke. As a switch-hitter, he almost always has a favorable matchup against the opposing pitcher, no matter who the Blue Jays bring out of the bullpen. Plus, while he’s never homered against him, Polanco has a solid track record against Bieber, going 8 for 29 against him.
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