Best NRFI Bets Today: Target a Pair of Productive Defenses

With Tarik Skubal set to take the mound, the St. Louis Cardinals will struggle to sustain their high marks on offense as the Detroit Tigers ace has been dominant since the start of the year. In the evening slate, we turn our attention towards the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants for the second night in a row as both struggling offenses are set to face off against another pair of productive arms who excel at avoiding contact.

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Detroit Tigers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Tarik Skubal vs. Erick Fedde (7:45 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After winning the AL Cy Young award in 2024, Tarik Skubal is on pace to win it for the second straight year as the Tigers pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 2.67, a WHIP of 0.926, a FIP of 2.11, less than one Walk per game, and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. Skubal also receives a high level of support from his back end in his starts as the Tigers defense ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

Against St. Louis, Skubal will have the opportunity to get off to a hot start as the Cardinals top of their order struggles with making contact. Even though their offense as a whole ranks near the top of the board in Team Total Hits, Lars Nootbaar and Masyn Winn have failed to give their offense a spark at the start of their contests. Heading into Tuesday’s matchup against Detroit, Nootbaar and Winn both average less than one Hit per game and an OPS lower than 0.800.

As for Erick Fedde, the Cardinals pitcher has also excelled at keeping opposing runners out of scoring position as he averages an ERA of 3.44 and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. With Colt Keith struggling to make contact at a competitive rate, the Tigers top of their order is vulnerable to slow starts due to their drop off in production. Fedde is also surrounded by a productive defense as the Cardinals back end ranks eighth overall in Defensive Efficiency.

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Kansas City Royals vs. San Francisco Giants - Michael Lorenzen vs. Hayden Birdsong (9:45 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Even though the San Francisco Giants defense have managed to play at a high level, their lack of offensive production handicaps their chances of leaping over the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the NL West division standings. Especially with their lineup struggling to make contact and get on base at a league average rate as the Giants offense ranks in the bottom half of the board in Team Total Hits and in On Base Percentage.

Heading into Tuesday, the Giants struggles on offense are poised to persist as they face off against Michael Lorenzen who excels at avoiding contact. As of writing, Lorenzen averages less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched and an ERA of 3.76. The Royals back end also grades out well in coverage which helps lessen the amount of contact variance in their contests as their defense ranks top-10 in Defensive Efficiency.

On the other side of the field, the Giants rotational pitcher Hayden Birdsong is also in a favorable position to thrive as he faces off against a Royals offense who ranks below league average in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. Their inability to get on base at a competitive rate will be on full display against Birdsong as the Giants pitcher averages an ERA of 2.31 and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies - Jesus Luzardo vs. Antonio Senzatela - After being held scoreless in the first inning in last night’s contest, positive regression looms large over the Philadelphia Phillies star studded top of their order as they face off against Antonio Senzatela who averages an ERA of 6.39, a WHIP of 1.992, and a FIP of 5.72.

• Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Ryne Nelson vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Ryne Nelson’s struggles on the mound are poised to persist as he faces off against a Los Angeles Dodgers offense who ranks near the top of the board in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage.

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