Best NRFI Bets Today: Target a NRFI in a AL Central Divisional Matchup

The Kansas City Royals struggles with getting into scoring position are poised to persist on Friday night as they face off against the Detroit Tigers Casey Mize who excels at avoiding contact. At the same time as their opening pitch, we target the NRFI in the matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros for the second night in a row as another pair of productive pitchers are set to take the mound.

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Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals - Casey Mize vs. Seth Lugo (8:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Casey Mize has seemingly picked up right where he left off as he finished his last outing against the Cleveland Guardians with six Strikeouts, four Hits Against, and one Earned Run. A high level of play for his first game back post injury and one that has mirrored what he has been able to do this season as Mize is currently averaging an ERA of 2.45, a WHIP of 1.007, and a FIP of 3.89. It also helps that he receives a high level of support from his back end as the Tigers defense ranks fifth overall in Defensive Efficiency.

In a AL Central matchup against Kansas City, Mize will have the opportunity to put together a dominant performance as he faces off against a lineup who ranks below league average in On Base Percentage, RBIs, and in Total Runs Scored. Even though the Royals make contact at a high rate, they have struggled to string together their Hits as their low marks in scoring indicates. Expect Mize to keep the Royals off the bases with his own high level of individual production and keep a clean sheet throughout the contest.

On the other side of the field, negative regression looms large over the Tigers red hot bats as they face off against Seth Lugo who averages an ERA of 3.02 and a FIP of 1.094. His success stems from his ability to avoid contact as Lugo currently averages less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. His back end also helps limit the amount of contact variance in his outings as the Royals defense ranks fourth in Fielding Percentage. With both pitchers in a position to thrive, expect no Runs to be scored in the first inning.

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Ryan Pepiot vs. Framber Valdez (8:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It has been a rough start to the year for the Tampa Bay Rays offense as their lineup currently ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. The top of their order has been especially underwhelming as Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe both average less than one Hit per game and a Batting Average lower than 0.250.

Their struggles with making contact are poised to persist against Framber Valdez as the Houston Astros pitcher averages a FIP of 3.29 and nearly one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. The Astros defense also excels in coverage as their back end heads into Friday’s contest against the Rays ranked top-10 in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

As for Ryan Pepiot, the Rays pitcher faces off against an Astros offense who struggles with bringing home their runners as their lineup currently ranks in the bottom half of the board in RBIs and in Total Runs Scored. Their inability to get into scoring position bodes well for Pepiot as he takes the mound averaging an ERA of 3.55 and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Kyle Freeland vs. David Peterson - The New York Mets star studded top of their order are in a position to thrive as they face off against the Colorado Rockies Kyle Freeland who averages an ERA of 5.86 and a WHIP of 1.681 while supported by a defense who ranks dead last in Defensive Efficiency.

• Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Sean Burke vs. Zach Eflin - Positive regression looms large over the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles struggling offenses as they face off against a pair of pitchers who average an ERA higher than 4.30 and a FIP more than 5.50.

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