Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect the Mariners to Struggle Against Trevor Rogers

Even with the Seattle Mariners' offense playing at a high level, negative regression looms large as they are set to battle it out against Trevor Rogers who excels at keeping opposing runners off the bases. Shortly after their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the Miami Marlins and Cleveland Guardians as both struggling offenses face off against a pair of productive arms on the mound.

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Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles - Logan Gilbert vs. Trevor Rogers (6:35 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After severely underwhelming last year, the Seattle Mariners' offense have drastically elevated their level of play as they currently rank above league average in Contact Rate, On Base Percentage, and in Slugger Percentage. Their ability to make contact at a consistent rate has helped them in their efforts of scoring as the Mariners also rank near the top of the board in RBIs and in Total Runs Scored.

Unfortunately for the Mariners, negative regression looms large over their offense as they face off against the Baltimore Orioles' Trevor Rogers who has been dominant this season. In his 10 starts, Rogers is averaging an ERA of 1.44 and a WHIP of 0.834. Even with his back end struggling in coverage, Rogers has shown he can neutralize any offense with just his arm as his FIP of 2.56 indicates. 

As for Logan Gilbert, the Mariners pitcher draws a much easier assignment as he faces off against an Orioles offense who ranks below league average in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. With Gilbert averaging a WHIP of 0.984 and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched, expect the Orioles' struggles on offense continue to persist while they are held scoreless in the first inning.

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Miami Marlins vs. Cleveland Guardians - Eury Perez vs. Gavin Williams (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

It has been a forgettable 2025 campaign for the Cleveland Guardians' offense as their lineup heads into Wednesday night’s contest against Miami, ranked below league average in Contact Rate, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, On Base Percentage, and in Slugger Percentage. A stunning low level of play for a lineup who was expected to play a big part in their chances of defending their AL Central division title.

With Eury Perez on the mound, the Guardians' struggles on offense will be on full display as the Marlins pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 3.25, a WHIP of 1.012, a FIP of 3.59, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. Especially with his back end reducing the amount of contact variance in his starts with their coverage as the Marlins defense ranks above league average in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, Gavin Williams also has the opportunity to get off to a hot start as he faces off against a Marlins offense who struggles with getting into scoring position. The Marlins will continue to struggle with getting on base against Williams as he is currently averaging an ERA of 3.17 and less than five Hits per game. With both pitchers in a position to thrive, expect no runs to be scored in the first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels - Shohei Ohtani vs. Kyle Hendricks - Expect the reigning World Series champions to get into scoring position from the opening pitch on Wednesday night as they face off against Kyle Hendricks who averages a FIP of 4.71 and a Los Angeles Angels defense who ranks 25th overall in Defensive Efficiency.

• Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Austin Gomber vs. Michael McGreevy - With Austin Gomber getting the start for Colorado, the St. Louis Cardinals will have the opportunity to open up the scoring early on in their contest against the Rockies as the struggling pitcher enters the contest averaging an ERA of 6.52 and a WHIP of 1.570.

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