Best NRFI Bets Today: Positive Regression Looms Large Over Shane Baz

With the Cleveland Guardians' offense failing to play at a competitive level, positive regression looms large over Shane Baz as the Tampa Bay Rays pitcher excels at generating Whiffs. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the AL Central divisional matchup between the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox as both struggling offenses are set to face off against a pair of productive arms on the mound.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Props Today.

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Shane Baz vs. Parker Messick (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

It has been an unfortunate 2025 campaign for the Tampa Bay Rays' Shane Baz as he heads into Monday night’s contest against Cleveland averaging an ERA of 5.22, a WHIP of 1.370, and a FIP of 4.77. Even though his metrics on the mound look alarming on paper, it is worth noting Baz excels at generating Whiffs as he also averages less than one Hit Allowed and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

In a matchup against the Guardians, positive regression looms large over Baz as he faces off against an offense who ranks near the bottom of the board in Contact Rate, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, On Base Percentage, and in Slugger Percentage. Especially with his back end giving him the support he needs to help mask his low level of play as the Rays defense ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency.

On the other side of the field, Parker Messick is also in a position to thrive as he is set to battle it out against a Rays offense who struggles with getting on base at a consistent rate. With Messick on the mound, expect the Rays to get off to a slow start as the Guardians pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 1.35 and a FIP of 1.76.

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Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Michael Lorenzen vs. Martin Perez (7:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

With less than 35 games remaining in the year, the Kansas City Royals must string together their wins should they want to salvage their hopes of playing in October as they are currently three games back from Seattle for the last wildcard spot in the playoffs. Their offense will need to quickly elevate their level of play as their lineup ranks below league average in On Base Percentage and in Total Runs Scored.

Unfortunately for Kansas City, their struggles on offense are poised to persist against Martin Perez as the Chicago White Sox pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 2.51, a WHIP of 1.151, and less than four Hits per game. Even with his back end struggling mightily in coverage, Perez is more than capable of neutralizing the Royals offense with just his individual production as his FIP of 3.15 indicates.

Like Perez, Michael Lorenzen also has the opportunity to put together a dominant performance as he faces off against a White Sox offense who ranks near dead last in most key offensive metrics. Expect the White Sox struggles with making contact to be on full display as Lorenzen averages nearly one Hit Against per Inning Pitched while supported by a defense who ranks top-10 in Fielding Percentage.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Nick Martinez vs. Clayton Kershaw - The Los Angeles Dodgers star star-studded offense are in a favorable position to open up the scoring early on in their contest against Cincinnati as the reigning World Series champions face off against Nick Martinez who is currently averaging an ERA of 4.59 and a FIP of 4.29.

• Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics - Charlie Morton vs. Osvaldo Bido - Expect the Detroit Tigers to get into scoring position from the opening pitch with Osvaldo Bido on the mound as the Athletics pitcher averages over one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched and a WHIP of 1.577.

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