Best NRFI Bets Today: Positive Regression Looms Large Over Shohei Ohtani

After underwhelming in his return to the mound, Shohei Ohtani has the opportunity to round back into form as he faces off against a Pittsburgh Pirates offense who struggles with making contact. At the same time as their opening pitch, we also focus on the matchup between Toronto and Cincinnati as a pair of productive arms are in a favorable position to get off to a hot start.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Shohei Ohtani vs. Braxton Ashcraft (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Even though Shohei Ohtani has managed to sustain his high level of play at the plate, the reigning NL MVP has struggled to round back into competitive form on the mound as he is currently averaging an ERA of 4.18 and a WHIP of 1.206. While his metrics look alarming on paper, it’s worth noting he has been a tad unlucky as Ohtani is also averaging a FIP of 2.26 and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

Fortunately for Ohtani, he will have a great opportunity to put together a dominant performance against Pittsburgh as he faces off against a Pirates offense who struggles with making contact and getting on base. Heading into Wednesday night, the Pirates rank below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, On Base Percentage, and in Slugger Percentage.

As for Braxton Ashcraft, the Pirates pitcher draws a much tougher assignment as he faces off against a Dodgers lineup who ranks near the top of the board in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. Even though his Strikeout Rate is low, Ashcraft still possesses more than enough individual production to neutralize the reigning World Series champions as he averages an ERA of 2.58 and a FIP of 2.46.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cincinnati Reds - Shane Bieber vs. Zack Littell (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-120) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

With less than 30 games remaining in the regular season, the Toronto Blue Jays must continue to win at a consistent rate should they want to win the AL East division title as the Boston Red Sox are currently two games back from first. Especially if they want to secure the number one overall seed in the AL as the Detroit Tigers are only a 0.5 game back in the league standings.

With Shane Bieber on the mound, Toronto will have the opportunity to hold Cincinnati off the scoreboard as the Blue Jays pitcher has been dominant in his brief appearances this season. In his two starts, Bieber is averaging 2.38, a WHIP of 0.618, and a FIP of 3.04. His hot start can be attributed to his high Whiff Rate as Bieber also averages less than one Hit Against and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

On the other side of the field, Zack Littell has also managed to put together a productive 2025 campaign as the Reds pitcher is averaging an ERA of 3.63 and a WHIP of 1.124. His back end has played a major role in his success this season by limiting the amount of contact variance in his starts as the Reds defense ranks top-10 in Defensive Efficiency.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Aaron Nola vs. Jose Quintana - The Milwaukee Brewers are in a favorable position to open up the scoring in the first inning against Philadelphia as they face off against Aaron Nola who averages a WHIP of 1.500 and a Phillies defense who ranks 24th in Defensive Efficiency.

• Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs - Bryce Elder vs. Cade Horton - With Bryce Elder averaging an ERA of 5.85 and a FIP of 4.90, his struggles on the mound are poised to persist as he faces off against a Chicago Cubs offense who ranks above league average in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage.

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