Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect the Astros to Fall Hard Back Down to Reality

After winning their last two games in a row, the Houston Astros are poised to fall hard back down to reality, facing off against the Boston Red Sox Brayan Bello who excels at avoiding contact. Before their opening pitch takes place, we turn our attention towards the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago Cubs as both top of their orders battle it out against two productive arms on the mound.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Props Today.

Best NRFI Bets for Tuesday, March 31

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Parker Messick vs. Roki Sasaki (10:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-110) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

While the Cleveland Guardians' offense struggled to give them the production they needed to be a well rounded contender, their defense helped mask their inefficiencies by keeping the score close enough for them to be competitive. Parker Messick played a role in their run to the AL Central division title last season, averaging an ERA of 2.72 and a FIP of 2.98.

In a highly anticipated matchup against the reigning World Series champions, every bit of Messick’s production on the mound will be needed, facing off against a lineup who finished in the top-2 in OPS. Luckily for Messick, the Guardians' back end excels in coverage which will help reduce the amount of variance in his favor, fielding a back line who ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency.

Competing against Messick is Roki Sasaki, a highly touted pitcher who struggled to find his footing in his rookie campaign, averaging a WHIP of 1.431 even though he generated less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. With the Guardians offense projected to replicate last year’s below league average marks in Contact Rate, OPS, and in RBI’s, expect Sasaki to round back into dominant form and keep a clean sheet in the first inning.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros - Brayan Bello vs. Hunter Brown (8:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-140) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After failing to re-tool their roster, the Houston Astros harshly regressed on offense last season, finishing the year ranked in the bottom half of the board in RBIs, Total Runs Scored, On Base Percentage, and in OPS. Even though they were able to make contact at a high rate, their inability to string together their Hits made it hard for them to bring their runners home, lowering their chances of scoring.

Unfortunately for the Astros, their struggles on offense are poised to persist on Tuesday night as they face off against the Boston Red Sox Brayan Bello who averaged an ERA of 3.35. Even though he generates Strikeouts at a low rate, his pinpoint accuracy helps him neutralize opposing batters, averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

On the other side of the field, Hunter Brown is projected to get the start for the Astros. He's one of the favorites for the AL Cy Young award who averaged a WHIP of 1.025 and over one Strikeout per Inning Pitched in 2025. While a matchup against the Red Sox looks daunting on paper, the Astros coverage helps reduce the amount of variance in Brown’s starts, ranking near the top of the board in Defensive Efficiency.

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Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs - Jose Soriano vs. Jameson Taillon (7:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Even though the Chicago Cubs fell just short of winning the NL Central division title, they can still hang their hat on a productive season, making it to the NLDS after dethroning the San Diego Padres in the wildcard round. Jameson Taillon played a major role in their success last year, averaging an ERA of 3.68, a WHIP of 1.057, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

In a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, expect Taillon to continue to thrive as he faces off against an offense who is projected to rank below league average in Contact Rate. Even with Mike Trout back at full health, the lack of support he receives from his teammates makes them vulnerable to getting off to slow starts, increasing the likelihood Taillon keeps a clean sheet in the first inning.

Competing with Taillon is Jose Soriano, an aggressive arm who is poised to bounce back after being on the wrong end of luck last season. While his ERA of 4.26 and WHIP of 1.396 seems alarming, positive regression looms large as he also generated a FIP of 3.73 and less than one Hit per inning. Expect Soriano to round back into competitive form and neutralize the Cubs top of their order in the process.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Kodai Senga vs. Andre Pallante - With Andre Pallante averaging a WHIP of 1.445 and over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched, the St. Louis Cardinals pitcher will struggle from the opening pitch as he faces off against the New York Mets who reside near the top of the board in Hit Rate and in OPS.

• Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Casey Mize vs. Brandon Pfaadt - Expect the Detroit Tigers and Arizona Diamondbacks to open up the scoring early on in their contest on Tuesday night, taking advantage of two pitchers who struggle to create Whiffs while generating Strikeouts at a low rate.

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