Best NRFI Bets Today: Paul Skenes Poised to Round Back Into Form

After being pulled in the first inning in the Pittsburgh Pirates season opener, Paul Skenes has a great opportunity to round back into form in his second start, facing off against the Cincinnati Reds who struggle to make contact. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards Yoshinobu Yamamoto as he battles it out against the Cleveland Guardians who rank below league average in most offensive metrics.

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Best NRFI Bets for Wednesday, April 1

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds - Paul Skenes vs. Andrew Abbott (12:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-145) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After winning the NL Cy Young award last year, Paul Skenes was unable to carry over his success into this season, finishing his debut with an ERA of 67.50 and a WHIP of 9.00 while conceding four Hits and five Earned Runs in the first inning. A stunning display from the Pirates ace, especially when factoring in how dominant he was in 2025, leading the league in ERA, WHIP, and in FIP.

Luckily for Skenes, he will have a great opportunity to round back into form on Wednesday, facing off against the Cincinnati Reds who currently rank below league average in Contact Rate and in OPS. With the Reds incapable of stringing together their Hits, this lowers their chances of advancing their runners into scoring position, making it easier for Skenes to leave them stranded.

Matching up with Skenes is Andrew Abbott, a left handed pitcher for the Reds who was dominant in his starts last year, finishing his 2025 campaign with a WHIP of 1.148 while averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. With the Pirates ranking near dead last in RBIs and in On Base Percentage, expect Abbott to exploit their struggles at the plate and keep a clean sheet in the first inning.

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Gavin Williams vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8:20 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Rivaling Paul Skenes at the top of the oddsboard for the NL Cy Young award is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Los Angeles Dodgers ace who excels at avoiding contact, averaging an ERA of 2.49, a WHIP of 0.990, a FIP of 2.94, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. His success on the mound stems from his aggression as Yamamoto also generates over one Strikeout per inning.

Heading into Wednesday night’s contest against the Cleveland Guardians, expect Yamamoto to build on his momentum by attacking a lineup who ranks near the bottom of the board in Strikeout Rate and in OPS. Especially with his back end giving him the support he needs to help limit the amount of variance in his starts, surrounded by a group who ranks in the top-10 in Defensive Efficiency.

On the other side of the field, Gavin Williams is expected to get the start for Cleveland, bringing with him a surgical arm that helped put batters in low quality contact scenarios by averaging less than one Hit per inning. While a matchup against the reigning World Series champions looks daunting on paper, Williams is also supported by a productive back end who ranks fifth in Fielding Percentage, drastically narrowing the width of the Dodgers gaps in the outfield.

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Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs - Jose Soriano vs. Jameson Taillon (7:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Even though the Chicago Cubs fell just short of winning the NL Central division title, they can still hang their hat on a productive season, making it to the NLDS after dethroning the San Diego Padres in the wildcard round. Jameson Taillon played a major role in their success last year, averaging an ERA of 3.68, a WHIP of 1.057, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

In a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, expect Taillon to continue to thrive as he faces off against an offense who is projected to rank below league average in Contact Rate. Even with Mike Trout back at full health, the lack of support he receives from his teammates makes them vulnerable to getting off to slow starts, increasing the likelihood Taillon keeps a clean sheet in the first inning.

Competing with Taillon is Jose Soriano, an aggressive arm who is poised to bounce back after being on the wrong end of luck last season. While his ERA of 4.26 and WHIP of 1.396 seems alarming, positive regression looms large as he also generated a FIP of 3.73 and less than one Hit per inning. Expect Soriano to round back into competitive form and neutralize the Cubs top of their order in the process.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Cade Cavalli vs. Cristopher Sanchez - Positive regression looms large over the Philadelphia Phillies star studded lineup as they face off against the Washington Nationals Cade Cavalli who averages a WHIP of 1.479 while supported by a defense who ranks dead last in Fielding Percentage.

• Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Kyle Freeland vs. Kevin Gausman - With Kyle Freeland averaging an ERA of 4.98 and a FIP of 4.18, expect his struggles on the mound to continue to persist against the Toronto Blue Jays, battling it out against an offense who resides in the top half of the board in Contact Rate and in OPS.

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