Dixie Vodka 400 Predictions: Hamlin Is the Only Driver in the Field With 3 Victories at the Track

• Denny Hamlin is the NASCAR Cup Series’ most prolific winner at Homestead.  
• Tyler Reddick made his reputation with back-to-back wins at the 1.5-mile track.
• Ross Chastain is an excellent choice to finish in the top three on Sunday.

Dixie Vodka 400 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Our Picks for the Dixie Vodka 400

Denny Hamlin to win the race at +800

Ross Chastain to finish in the top three at +300

Ross Chastain to beat Joey Logano head-to-head at -105

Dixie Vodka 400 Predictions

Denny Hamlin Can Punch His Ticket to Championship 4 with Victory

Though Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 will be the first race at Homestead-Miami Speedway with NASCAR’s Next Gen Cup car, Denny Hamlin’s experience will still matter.

Hamlin is the only driver in the field with three victories at the track, and Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch (two wins) is the only other driver with more than one.

Accordingly, we expect the JGR Toyotas to show their customary speed in Sunday’s race, even with the transition to the new car.

Our pick for the Dixie Vodka 400 is Hamlin at +800 via DraftKings Sportsbook. We fully expect him to earn his ticket to the Nov. 6 title race at Phoenix with a victory on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick Made His Reputation with Xfinity Title Wins at Homestead

Tyler Reddick, not Denny Hamlin, is the favorite to win Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400, with a price at +700 via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Reddick has never won a NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but he was fourth in his 2020 debut and second to William Byron last year.

Nor is Reddick far removed from his back-to-back victories at the 1.5-mile track in 2018 and 2019, when he ran the wall to two straight Xfinity Series titles with two different teams—JR Motorsports and Richard Childress Racing.

Reddick was eliminated from the Playoffs, but he should be a contender on Sunday. Problem is, we like Hamlin better at +800 than Reddick at +700.

Ross Chastain Has Done Nothing to Dissuade Us Great Expectations

We had Ross Chastain to win last week at Las Vegas, and he was leading with six laps left. Unfortunately, Joey Logano—with fresher tires—passed him for the win and upset our apple cart.

Nevertheless, Chastain’s second-place run reasserted his overall superiority at 1.5-mile tracks, where he has scored 67 more points than any other Playoff contender.

Homestead is another intermediate track, and we expect Chastain to finish in the top three once again at +300.

We also expect him to turn the tables on Logano and beat him head-to-head at -105.

How to Watch the Dixie Vodka 400