NFL Offensive Player of the Year Predictions & Odds: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Favorite Before Week 18

• The Seahawks' star Jaxon Smith-Njigba has effectively locked up the top spot in the eyes of oddsmakers.

• The 49ers' running back Christian McCaffrey has surged into the runner-up position, overtaking Nacua.

• Puka Nacua's odds took a massive hit following the Rams' upset loss to Atlanta.

Offensive Player of the Year is one of the most unique awards in the NFL. In theory, it should go to a quarterback virtually every year, much like the NFL MVP award does. However, more often than not, Offensive Player of the Year goes to the best non-quarterback offensive player. This often leads to a hotly contested battle between the NFL’s top wide receivers and running backs to be named Offensive Player of the Year. That makes the award difficult to handicap, requiring a close examination of who the favorites and best candidates are to win the award.

AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

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AP Offensive Player of the Year Winner - My Pick

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-370) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the overwhelming favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year as the league's most productive skill player, leading the NFL in receiving yards while serving as the primary offensive engine for the NFC's top-seeded Seattle Seahawks (13–3). While the MVP race focuses on quarterbacks, OPOY voters typically look for the most dominant playmaker, and Smith-Njigba's candidacy is bolstered by his consistency; he has delivered elite volume stats week after week while key rivals like Puka Nacua have stumbled down the stretch. With Seattle controlling the path to home-field advantage, Smith-Njigba offers the perfect "best player on the best team" narrative required to secure the award.

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How to Bet on AP Offensive Player of the Year

Until the late stages of the season, it’s usually tough to decipher who will win Offensive Player of the Year. Even late in the season, there are often going to be several deserving candidates. Most of the time, unless there is a quarterback who has gone above and beyond, it’s a safe bet that either a wide receiver or running back will win the award. Of course, that doesn’t always narrow down the list of serious candidates much.

While it sounds simple, Offensive Player of the Year often comes down to pure numbers. More often than not, the winner is either the NFL leader in rushing or receiving yards. Typically, it helps if that player is far ahead of the pack in that category. While scoring touchdowns and playing for a winning team can matter, total yards is usually the best indicator of who will win Offensive Player of the Year. The catch is predicting which running back or wide receiver has the supporting cast around him and the opportunity to blow away the competition when it comes to statistics. If you can spot that player, you can predict who will be the Offensive Player of the Year.

How to Read AP Offensive Player of the Year Odds

With no shortage of candidates, most contenders for Offensive Player of the Year will have plus (+) odds listed next to their name. This means the potential to make a big profit with an accurate bet. For example, a player with +800 will give you a profit of $800 if you bet $100. Just keep in mind that odds for the top favorites tend to shrink later in the season. If there is a heavy favorite, they may have negative (-) odds, which will reduce the potential profit. For example, for a player with -400 odds, you will have to bet $400 to make a profit of $100.

Where to Bet on AP Offensive Player of the Year

Most reputable online sportsbooks will keep close tabs on Offensive Player of the Year odds throughout the season, as well as during the offseason. FanDuel Sportsbook is among the best options for betting on OPOTY and other NFL awards. For starters, FanDuel is one of the NFL’s official betting partners. It also has a lot of NFL betting markets with competitive odds.

FanDuel is also a great sportsbook for first-time users. New customers who sign up for a FanDuel account are eligible for a lucrative welcome offer: Bet $5, Get $250 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins. There is no promo code necessary; just sign up, bet $5, and collect your bonus bets if your first wager wins.

AP Offensive Player of the Year History

The first AP Offensive Player of the Year honor was awarded in 1972 to running back Larry Brown of the team now known as the Washington Commanders. The only positions to win the Offensive Player of the Year award are quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends.