NFL Offensive Player of the Year Predictions & Odds 2025: Jonathan Taylor is the New Leader

• Jonathan Taylor has looked the part of Offensive Player of the Year, leading the NFL in rushing by a large margin through three weeks

• After fast starts in Week 1, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry have seen their odds drop considerably

• Puka Nacua has emerged as the wide receiver with the best chance to win Offensive Player of the Year

Offensive Player of the Year is one of the most unique awards in the NFL. In theory, it should go to a quarterback virtually every year, much like the NFL MVP award does. However, more often than not, Offensive Player of the Year goes to the best non-quarterback offensive player. This often leads to a hotly contested battle between the NFL’s top wide receivers and running backs to be named Offensive Player of the Year. That makes the award difficult to handicap, requiring a close examination of who the favorites and best candidates are to win the award.

AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

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AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year Predictions

It’s been a whirlwind three weeks in the Offensive Player of the Year race. After the first week of the season, it looked like it would be another two-horse race between Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. But that narrative has been turned on its head with the way Jonathan Taylor has performed. After a modest Week 1, Taylor has rushed for 267 yards over his last two games, including three touchdowns in Indy’s Week 3 win over the Titans. If he can continue to lead the league in rushing, Taylor will keep being the OPOTY favorite.

That being said, several other running backs are worth monitoring closely. Christian McCaffrey has gone from being an injury concern ahead of Week 1 to being one of the most productive players in the league. With Mac Jones at quarterback for the injured Brock Purdy, McCaffrey is carrying the 49ers right now. Oddly enough, he has more receiving yards than rushing yards. But no matter how he gets them, McCaffrey is currently on track to amass more than 2,000 all-purpose yards.

Of course, while Taylor and McCaffrey have gotten off to fast starts, Henry, Barkley, and Bijan Robinson are all capable of playing at a similar level over an extended period. All three could still be considered viable contenders for OPOTY. Meanwhile, the number of wide receiver candidates could be limited to Puka Nacua, especially since Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase have been hurt by injuries to their quarterbacks. Nacua, despite not having a touchdown, has at least 90 receiving yards in all three games, showing the type of consistency that can put him in a position to win Offensive Player of the Year.

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AP Offensive Player of the Year Winner - My Pick

• Christian McCaffrey (+850) at FanDuel Sportsbook

McCaffrey was our choice after Week 1 at +1300, and we’re sticking with him at +850. The first three weeks of the season have proven that it doesn’t matter who’s playing quarterback for the 49ers. Obviously, McCaffrey needs to stay healthy, but keep in mind the last time he played a full season, he gained over 2,000 all-purpose yards and won Offensive Player of the Year, which he could replicate this season.

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How to Bet on AP Offensive Player of the Year

Until the late stages of the season, it’s usually tough to decipher who will win Offensive Player of the Year. Even late in the season, there are often going to be several deserving candidates. Most of the time, unless there is a quarterback who has gone above and beyond, it’s a safe bet that either a wide receiver or running back will win the award. Of course, that doesn’t always narrow down the list of serious candidates much.

While it sounds simple, Offensive Player of the Year often comes down to pure numbers. More often than not, the winner is either the NFL leader in rushing or receiving yards. Typically, it helps if that player is far ahead of the pack in that category. While scoring touchdowns and playing for a winning team can matter, total yards is usually the best indicator of who will win Offensive Player of the Year. The catch is predicting which running back or wide receiver has the supporting cast around him and the opportunity to blow away the competition when it comes to statistics. If you can spot that player, you can predict who will be the Offensive Player of the Year.

How to Read AP Offensive Player of the Year Odds

With no shortage of candidates, most contenders for Offensive Player of the Year will have plus (+) odds listed next to their name. This means the potential to make a big profit with an accurate bet. For example, a player with +800 will give you a profit of $800 if you bet $100. Just keep in mind that odds for the top favorites tend to shrink later in the season. If there is a heavy favorite, they may have negative (-) odds, which will reduce the potential profit. For example, for a player with -400 odds, you will have to bet $400 to make a profit of $100.

Where to Bet on AP Offensive Player of the Year

Most reputable online sportsbooks will keep close tabs on Offensive Player of the Year odds throughout the season, as well as during the offseason. FanDuel Sportsbook is among the best options for betting on OPOTY and other NFL awards. For starters, FanDuel is one of the NFL’s official betting partners. It also has a lot of NFL betting markets with competitive odds.

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AP Offensive Player of the Year History

The first AP Offensive Player of the Year honor was awarded in 1972 to running back Larry Brown of the team now known as the Washington Commanders. The only positions to win the Offensive Player of the Year award are quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends.