Best Raiders vs. Broncos Prop Bets: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Raiders Offense

• The Denver Broncos have a one game lead for first in the AFC West division standings

• J.K Dobbins is averaging 5.1 Yards per Carry and leads the team in Red Zone Attempts

• Geno Smith ranks below league average in Quarterback EPA per Play and in PFF Grade

After a 7-2 start to the year, the Denver Broncos head into week 10 with a one game lead for first in the AFC West odds. In a divisional matchup against Las Vegas, the Broncos will have a great opportunity to pad their lead in the division standings as their defense faces off against a Raiders offense who grades out poorly in most key offensive metrics.

Best Raiders vs. Broncos Prop Bets in TNF Week 10

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Geno Smith Under 20.5 Pass Completions (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since being traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, Geno Smith has struggled to recapture the same success he had in Seattle as the former Seahawks quarterback ranks near dead last in Quarterback EPA per play and in PFF Grade. His lack of awareness in the pocket brings in a higher amount of Havoc into his throws as Smith also ranks below league average in Sack Rate and in Turnover Worthy Play Percentage.

Unfortunately for Smith, his struggles against pressure are poised to persist on Thursday night as he faces off against a Denver Broncos front seven who collapses the pocket at a high rate as their top-5 mark in Pass Rush Win Rate indicates. When in a collapsing pocket, the quality of Smith’s throws will drastically decline which lowers his chances of generating a completion.

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Ashton Jeanty Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After being selected by the Raiders in the first round of the NFL Draft, Ashton Jeanty was expected to elevate their offense while listed as the top pick in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds weeks into the season, and that has yet to be the case as Jeanty currently ranks below league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt.

His offensive line has played a major role in his slow start to the season as the Raiders' front five reside in the bottom half of the board in Run Block Win Rate. With the Denver Broncos blitzing their linebackers at a heavy rate, the Raiders' offensive line will continue to struggle to open up running lanes for Jeanty which hurts his ability to reach the second level of their defense.

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J.K. Dobbins Longest Rush Over 15.5 Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even after selecting RJ Harvey in the second round of the draft, J.K. Dobbins has been able to hold him off by gashing opposing defenses on a weekly basis. Through the first nine weeks of the season, Dobbins is averaging 5.1 Yards per Carry while nearly doubling Harvey in total Touches.

In Thursday night’s matchup against the Raiders, Dobbins will be able to continue to generate explosive runs as he faces off against a front seven who ranks near dead last in Run Defense PFF Grade. Especially with the Raiders anchoring their linebackers in coverage at a heavy rate as this will give Dobbins more room to work with when he gets past the line of scrimmage.

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J.K. Dobbins Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

When inside the 20, Dobbins has been the focal point of the Broncos' offense as he also comfortably leads the team in total Red Zone Rush Attempts. With the Raiders' defensive line struggling to plug the gaps in the trenches, expect Dobbins to continue to generate Yards After Contact and punch one in for six.

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