Jaxon Smith-Njigba hauled in a touchdown in the NFC Conference Championship
Drake Maye is listed as one of the betting favorites to win the NFL MVP award
The New England Patriots' defense ranks below league average in Def Pass DVOA
Even with the Los Angeles Rams secondary shading their coverage towards him, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was still able to thrive in the NFC Conference Championship as the Seattle Seahawks receiver hauled in 10 Receptions for 153 yards and 1 touchdown. Heading into the Super Bowl, expect Sam Darnold to continue to connect with JSN at a high rate as the New England Patriots' defense grades out poorly in most defensive pass metrics.
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After trading DK Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was able to take advantage of his heavier workload as the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver is listed as the betting favorite to win the Offensive Player of the Year award. JSN’s success can be attributed to his production in the red zone as he managed to haul in over 50% of his Targets while converting six of his 10 Receptions into touchdowns.
In a favorable matchup against New England, expect JSN to build on his momentum as he faces off against a Patriots secondary who ranks below league average in Def Pass DVOA and in Coverage Grade. With the Patriots struggling to keep a defender near the point of contact, the width of Sam Darnold’s passing lanes will widen which increases his chances of connecting with his star receiver.
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In his first year with Seattle, Cooper Kupp struggled to recapture the same success he had earlier in his career as the former Rams receiver averaged just 37.1 Receiving Yards and 2.9 Receptions per game. While his production in the middle of the field was less to be desired, Kupp was still able to capitalize on his opportunities near the goal line as he also hauled in 63.6% of his Red Zone Targets.
With JSN pulling defensive attention away from him, expect Kupp to exploit the Patriots gaps in coverage his teammate creates and generate a high amount of Targets in the red zone. For some more exposure, escalator bet Kupp’s Anytime Touchdown Scorer prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals at the best available odds.
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Since the start of the regular season, Drake Maye has built a strong case for winning the MVP award as the Patriots quarterback leads the league in Quarterback EPA per Play, Completion Percentage Over Expected, and in Air Yards / Reception. Maye’s production helped turn the Patriots into a championship contender, leading an offense who ranks in the top-8 in Off DVOA and in Success Rate.
Not only was Maye effective through the air, but he also helped keep the Patriots offense ahead of the sticks with his legs by averaging 4.4 Yards per Carry. With the Seattle Seahawks defense residing near the top of the board in Blitz Rate and in Pressure Rate, Maye will be forced to scramble out of the pocket for the full duration of the contest which will lead to an uptick in his total number of Rush Attempts.
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Even though TreVeyon Henderson has taken a back seat to Rhamondre Stevenson in the playoffs, the Patriots' rookie has still been more effective with his carries as he grades out better in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. With the Seahawks ranking 31st in Stacked Box Rate, Henderson will have more room to work with when he reaches the second level of their defense, which increases his chances of scoring.
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