Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz - Predictions, Odds & Live Stream

  • Dortmund’s Bundesliga slim titles chances are likely to have been extinguished by the time of kick-off
  • Mainz is nervously looking over its shoulder with three games remaining
  • Dortmund has tightened up its defense and its new-found solidity should be on display here
What to watch Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz
Where Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany
When Wednesday, 17 June 2020, 2.30 PM EST
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In the first half of the season, Borussia Dortmund played out three consecutive 2-2 draws, lost 4-0 to Bayern Munich, and tied 3-3 with both RB Leipzig and Paderborn – the latter being the team which has been bottom of the table for virtually the entire campaign.

It has been a different story in recent months. Dortmund lost 4-3 to Bayer Leverkusen in a thrilling, topsy-turvy contest back in February. That result saw BVB miss out on going joint-top of the Bundesliga table, but it remained in an excellent position in the title race.

Its hopes of winning the championship are now all but over – Bayern will be crowned kings of German soccer if it avoids defeat by Werder Bremen on Tuesday – but it has taken on a new identity in recent months. In the 10 games since that loss to Leverkusen, Dortmund has kept seven clean sheets and conceded only three goals. The title may elude it, but BVB has undoubtedly become a better-balanced team in recent times, and it would still be in the race were it not for Bayern’s astonishing form under Hansi Flick.

There are rather fewer positives to be found in Mainz’s predicament. Achim Beierlorzer’s side may still be clinging to the final guaranteed safety spot in the Bundesliga standings, but it has been looking nervously over its shoulder for some time. A trip to Signal Iduna Park is unlikely to be an agreeable tonic.

Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz Odds

To win to nil Odds
Borussia Dortmund +130
Mainz +2000

Odds taken 16 June, from bet365 NJ

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Dortmund’s defensive resolve has not been sufficient to maintain its title tilt, but it has ensured that RB Leipzig has not been able to keep pace in the race for second. Seven of BVB’s last 10 matches have seen it win without conceding, which makes odds of 125 very tempting indeed.

Mainz is due to face 17th-placed Werder Bremen this weekend. Provided Werder loses to Bayern Munich on Tuesday as expected, victory for Mainz could potentially guarantee its survival. It would not be a surprise in the slightest were manager Achim Beierlorzer to prioritise that game over this one.

Dortmund on Verge of Another Top-Two Finish but Favre’s Future Uncertain

Lucien Favre is coming towards the end of his second season in charge of Dortmund. The Yellow-Blacks were top of the league at the end of more game weeks than Bayern last term, but it was the latter that ultimately got its hands on the title. Dortmund fell away as the finish line came into sight, losing to Augsburg, Bayern and Schalke, and ultimately finishing two points adrift of first place.

Dortmund has not collapsed in the same fashion this term, even if it is already impossible for the team to match last season’s points tally of 76. Yet Favre’s side has never really been in the title race, having failed to occupy top spot at all since August.

Given that Bayern has a far larger budget and wage bill there would be no great shame in finishing second, yet Favre nevertheless finds his position under threat going into the summer.

Mainz Remains in Relegation Bother and Has Two Tough Games to Come

Mainz has not moved from 15th position – the final spot in the table that guarantees survival – since matchday 18, the first round of games after the winter break. Beierlorzer’s side has won three games since then; combined with its four draws, that has been enough for Mainz to keep its head above water by the most slender of margins.

After this game and the aforementioned clash with Werder Bremen, Mainz will end the campaign with a tricky trip to Bayer Leverkusen. Safety is far from assured, then, with recent 1-0 losses at home to Hoffenheim and Augsburg representing missed opportunities for Mainz to pull clear of the bottom three.

Mainz has kept only three clean sheets all season and has little chance of a fourth on Wednesday. Only the bottom two have conceded more goals than Mainz this term, while only four sides have scored fewer goals.

Dortmund Targeting a Third Clean Sheet and Victory in a Row

Dortmund deserves credit for its response to the 1-0 defeat by Bayern last month that essentially ended its chances of finishing on top of the pile. BVB has not dropped a single point since then, overcoming the varied challenges of Paderborn, Hertha Berlin and Fortuna Dusseldorf.

It is true that such a trio of opponents is not the strongest the Bundesliga has to offer, yet Dortmund’s mentality and professionalism is worthy of praise.

Despite its desperation for points, Mainz will struggle to collect any from its trip to face Favre’s side this week. For Beierlorzer and his players, Saturday’s meeting with fellow strugglers Werder Bremen is far more significant.

Our Pick

Our Pick: Back Dortmund to pick up another victory and another clean sheet at Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday, even if Bayern has already secured the title.

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