The Sony Open Predictions: Spaun to Sink Sony Rivals

• This is the first tournament of the year after last week’s Sentry was postponed

• Waialae plays host once more for an event which started in 1965

• World No.5 Russell Henley is the betting favorite

Sony Open 2026 Odds

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Sony Open 2026 Predictions

• J.J. Spaun each-way (1/4 1-2-3-4-5) at +1600 with bet365

• Adam Scott to bt Chris Kirk in a 72-hole match bet at -110 with bet365

• Haotong Li for Top 10 at +700 with BetMGM

Sony Open 2026 Intro

After an extended break due to The Sentry being cancelled due to a drought issue on Maui, the 2026 PGA Tour season gets underway in Honolulu this week.

The Sony Open has been going since the mid-60s and is traditionally the first full-field event of the year.

There’s a slight wrinkle this time as the number of entrants has been cut to 120.

There is plenty of quality though, with four of the world’s top 10 - Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, Robert MacIntyre and Ben Griffin - teeing it up at Waialae Country Club. 

Three more of the world’s top 20 - Keegan Bradley, Hideki Matsuyama and Collin Morikawa - also make the trip.

This is the 61st edition and all have been played at Waialae, a par 70 that suits brain over brawn. 

Wind is likely to be a factor this week.

Last 5 Winners of the Hero World Challenge

Course Notes

• Waialae Country Club is a par 70 that measures 7,044 yards

• The two par fives are at the end of each nine

• The Seth Raynor design was recently modified by Tom Doak

• The greens are covered in Bermuda grass

• Justin Thomas owns the 18-hole record, firing a 59 in the first round in 2017

• Justin Thomas also owns the 72-hole record of 253 (2017)

• Winds are likely to be around 20mph for most of the week

Favorites to Win the Sony Open 2026

Russell Henley (+1100) at bet365

Henley is forever linked with this event as it was here that he became the first player in 10 years to win in his debut as a PGA Tour rookie. That was back in 2013 when he shot 24-under to claim a three-shot win at odds around +30000. More recently he has a second (2022), a fourth (2024) and a 10th (2025) at Waialae so, after a superb 2025 which saw him move to fifth in the world rankings, Henley deserves to be at the top of the odds board.

Ben Griffin (+1600) at bet365

Griffin was one of the big success stories of 2025. He started the year ranked 68th in the world and ended it inside the top 10. There were wins at April’s Zurich Classic pairs event, May’s Charles Schwab Challenge and November’s World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico. Griffin, who nearly quit the game, is 3-for-3 at Waialae with a best of 12th on debut in 2023. He’s opened with a 65 in two of the last three editions.  

Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) at bet365

Matsuyama is one of a select number of golfers to have landed the Hawaii double. He won this event in 2023 and opened 2025 by capturing The Sentry. Here at Waialae, the Japanese golfer has made each of his last eight cuts, making the top 20 in half of those. After a strange 2025 when he just couldn’t build on his Sentry win, Matsuyama rallied with a trio of top 10s to finish. The latter saw him claim victory in the limited-field Hero World Challenge in November so he’ll hope to carry that momentum over to 2026.  

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Spaun to Start with a ‘W’

Like Henley, Griffin and Matsuyama, J.J. Spaun also lifted silverware in 2025.

And his, of course, was the most prestigious piece of the lot after he produced a brilliant performance to capture the U.S. Open at Oakmont.

It’s not as if Spaun hadn’t warned punters that he was a player to be reckoned with.

Earlier that season, the 35-year-old had finished runner-up at THE PLAYERS Championship after losing a playoff against Rory McIlroy.

Spaun also lost a playoff - this time to Justin Rose - after his US Open triumph when being defeated at the third extra hole in August’s FedEx St. Jude Championship.

In the Fall Series, he ended his campaign with sixth at the Procore and 11th in the World Wide Technology Championship and in between he was a rather underused member of the beaten US Ryder Cup team at Bethpage.

Spaun played just three matches but won two points.

He’s clearly operating at a very high level now and with third here last year and 12th in 2023, the American can get his 2026 off to the best possible start. 

Back Spaun at each-way odds of +1600 (1/4 1-2-3-4-5) with bet365.

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Scott to Beat Kirk

I’m going to lean into the idea of competitive rust, or the lack of it, by backing Adam Scott to beat Chris Kirk in a 72-hole match bet. It’s a -110 pick ‘em at bet365.

Scott has kept the engine running by playing events back home.

He was seventh at the Aussie PGA at the end of November and added fifth place in December’s Australian Open.

Also 11th in October’s Japan Open, the veteran is a past runner-up at this course and the most recent of his five top 25s came on his last visit when 21st in 2023.

Kirk has a rather feast or famine record at the Sony Open, missing half of his last 10 cuts but also managing a second (2021) and a third (2023).

But he’s played just once since August (41st at the RSM Classic) and Scott should be much sharper for this opening test of the campaign.

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Li for Top 10

Haotong Li is worth a punt at +700 for a Top 10 after finishing 2025 strongly with eighth at the DP World Tour Championship and 10th at the Nedbank.

The man from China, who was tied fourth in last summer’s Open Championship, was 12th here on his last visit after sitting third through 54 holes. He looks underrated.

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How to Watch the Sony Open 2026

• Tournament: Sony Open 2026

• Location: Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, HI

• Date: Thursday January 14 - Sunday January 17

• How to Watch: Thursday-Sunday 7 p.m.-10 p.m. ET (Golf Channel). And all four days on Sky Sports