US Open 2026 Predictions: Henley to Join Majors Club

Europeans have won the first two majors of 2026, with Northern Ireland’s Rory McIlroy pulling off a dramatic defense of his Masters Green Jacket and England’s Aaron Rai scoring a shock win in the PGA Championship at Aronimink.

The Americans must feel it’s time to hit back in their national Open and history says the Stars and Stripes will be flying high at the end of the week.

US players have won nine of the last 11 editions and three of the four most recent US Opens staged at Shinnecock. 

Ray Floyd shot -1 in 1986, Corey Pavin won with even par in 1995 while Brooks Koepka’s +1 was enough to take victory in 2018.

Those scores show just how tough this classic course plays. Situated on Long Island, it’s exposed to the winds and has incredibly tricky green complexes.

The fairways have at least been widened a little since 2018 but deep rough awaits anything stray.

As for the putting surfaces, Michael Kim noted on X: “These greens are big but they play very very small. There’s runoffs on almost every side.”

In other words, brace yourselves for another super-tough US Open - just as it should be! 

• The event takes place at Shinnecock for the sixth occasion

• Brooks Koepka won with +1 the last time the tournament was held there in 2018

• Scottie Scheffler is trying to complete the Grand Slam 

US Open 2026 Odds

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Sign up today with Caesars Sportsbook promo code WSNDYW and claim the following welcome offer: Bet $1, Double Your Winnings 10x. For more betting action, check our curated list of the best Golf betting sites.

US Open 2026 Picks and Predictions

• Russell Henley each-way (1/5 odds, 10 Places) at +3000 with BetMGM

• Patrick Reed to beat JJ Spaun in 72-hole match at -115 with Caesars

• Harris English for Top 10 at +625 with Caesars

For more insights, have a look at our US Open betting guide.

Last 5 Winners of the US Open

Course Notes

• Shinnecock Hills opened in 1891 and was designed by William Flynn

• It’s staged this event in 1896, 1986, 1995, 2004 and 2018

• The course measures 7,440 yards from the tips. Par is 70

• Rory McIlroy holds the 72-hole record for the US Open (268, Congressional 2011)

• Rickie Fowler/Xander Schauffele (LA CC 2023) hold the US Open 18-hole record of 62

• Tommy Fleetwood’s closing 63 (2018) is the low 18-hole score at Shinnecock

Favorites to Win the US Open 2026

Scottie Scheffler (+500) at Caesars

Scheffler won his first event of 2026, The American Express, but has now gone 11 tournaments without a victory. Six top fours in that run and nothing worse than 24th shows he’s not far off and perhaps the World No.1 is just saving it all for this week. If Scheffler lifts the trophy he’d become just the seventh player in history to complete the Grand Slam of all four majors. A runner-up at Augusta in April, Scheffler has a second, a third and two sevenths in his last five US Opens. This is his first pro start at Shinnecock.

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Rory McIlroy (+1200) at Caesars

McIlroy’s runaway eight-shot win at Congressional in 2011 remains his only US Open victory although he’s been runner-up in two of the last three and boasts six top 10s in the last seven. In truth, he should really have won this more than once. McIlroy took his tally of majors to six when defending at Augusta and followed that with seventh in the PGA Championship. He won’t have happy memories of Shinnecock though after opening with an 80 in 2018 and missing the cut.

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Jon Rahm (+1400) at Caesars

Rahm never got it going at Augusta when 38th in The Masters but shook off accusations that he was becoming a fading force in the majors when second in the PGA at Aronimink. Between the two he won LIV Golf Mexico and on his latest start the Spaniard finished runner-up on home soil at LIV Golf Andalucia. Victory in the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines is one of four top 10s in his last six starts in this event but, like McIlroy, he missed the cut at Shinnecock in 2018 (78-77).

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Henley to Break Through  

Given how severe the test is, you’d expect the same names to keep popping up on US Open leaderboards.

But while it definitely throws up tournament specialists, the US Open has a habit of going to a player yet to win a major.

Eight of the last 10 US Open winners were majorless, with JJ Spaun the latest to get his big breakthrough moment at this event.

Russell Henley could be the next cab of the rank if that pattern repeats this week.

The Georgia Bulldog has finished seventh and 10th in the last two US Opens and also produced his best result in the majors when third at this year’s Masters.

And with the US Open taking place by the coast in windy conditions, it bodes well that Henley has posted fifth and 10th in the last two Open Championships.

He arrives on Long Island in good spirits after winning the Charles Schwab Challenge two starts ago and has positive memories of Shinnecock from 2018 after being the first-round leader and ending the week in the top 25.

Back Henley each-way (1/5 odds, 10 Places) at +3000 with BetMGM.

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Reed to Beat Spaun

JJ Spaun had his golden moment in last year’s US Open at Oakmont and has been in good form over the last few weeks.

But, as defending champion, he’ll have lots of focus on him this week and that’s something Spaun isn’t used to.

He’s missed the cut at both The Masters and PGA Championship this season and, that brilliant US Open win aside, he’s not made the top 20 in any of his other 11 majors.

I’ll take Spaun on in a 72-hole match bet with Patrick Reed. It’s a -115 pick’ em at Caesars.

Reed was fourth at Shinnecock in 2018 and looks a great fit to have another big week there.

With 12th at The Masters and 10th at the PGA, he’s easily outperformed Spaun in this year’s majors.

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English to Land Top 10

With three top 10s in the last six US Opens, Harris English knows how to hang tough.

Also a runner-up by the sea in last year’s Open at Portrush, he looks great value at +625 with Caesars to make the top 10 again.

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How to Watch the US Open 2026

• Tournament: US Open

• Location: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, Southampton, NY

• Date: Thursday June 18 - Sunday June 21

• How to Watch: Thursday 6:30 a.m.-5 p.m. (USA), 5-8 p.m. (NBC Sports Network, Peacock) ET, Friday 6:30 a.m.-1:30 p.m. (NBC Sports Network, Peacock), 1:30-7:30 p.m. (NBC), 7:30-8:30 p.m. (NBC Sports Network, Peacock). Saturday 10 a.m.-noon (USA), noon-8 p.m. (NBC), Sunday 9 a.m.-noon (USA), noon-7 p.m. (NBC). And all four days on Sky Sports.