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Tigres vs Guadalajara Prediction: Both Teams Have Entered the Finals Against All Odds

Written by: Nikhil Kalro
Published May 23, 2023
11 min read
  • Tigres host Guadalajara at the Estadio Universitario this Thursday in the first leg of the finals. 
  • Tigres beat Monterrey 1-0 in the second leg and 2-1 on aggregate to qualify for the finals. Tigres were the underdogs heading into the semifinal, so this was an incredibly impressive result. 
  • Guadalajara were also underdogs in their semifinal tie with Club America but came out on top with a 3-2 win on aggregate after winning the second-leg 3-1.

Tigres vs Guadalajara Odds

Odds taken from bet365

Game result

Odds

Tigres

-104

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Draw

+200

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Guadalajara  

+290

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Tigres vs Guadalajara Pick

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Tigres vs Guadalajara Prediction

Tigres vs Guadalajara Predictions

It all comes down to this match. Tigres and Guadalajara have entered the 2022-23 Liga MX Clausura finals against all odds. Both sides were expected to be knocked out of the competition in the last round, yet here they are. It’s important to note that both sides played much better than their semifinal opponents – not only did they not allow Club America and Monterrey to play their game, but they also took the game to the pre-semifinal favorites. 

Tigres’ win against Monterrey and Guadalajara’s win against Club America were great adverts for Liga MX. The two sides were underdogs heading into their semifinal fixtures and entering their second-leg ties without a home or goal advantage. It’s quite remarkable what the two sides have achieved, but only one team can win the championship. 

Tigres are playing the first match at home. Naturally, they will go into the tie as slight favorites, but home and away have lost some significance after recent events. The Estadio Universitario creates a pretty hostile atmosphere, so Guadalajara will have to be wary of this, but they’re more than capable of getting a result. A draw seems the most likely outcome in the first leg. 

If Tigres win the championship, it’ll be their eighth in Liga MX history. On the other hand, Guadalajara can equal Club America’s 13 league titles. This game is really hard to call; it feels like the second leg will decide the Liga MX Clausura champions for the 2022-23 season. 

Previous Meetings

The head-to-head record between the two sides is fascinating because Tigres has the better record overall, but Guadalajara have won the last two matches. In the 27 matches contested between the two sides, Tigres have won 12, lost six, and drawn nine. Guadalajara’s last two wins were fairly tight affairs that ended 2-1 on both occasions. 

The last meeting between the two sides was in February this year. Two early goals from Gilberto Sepulveda (2’) and Ronaldo Cisneros (34’) were key to Guadalajara getting all three points. Tigres Nicolas Ibanez scored from the penalty spot in the 87th minute, but it came too late. 

Tigres has 67% of the possession and took 20 shots to Guadalajara’s seven, but Guadalajara’s two early goals were ultimately decisive. It’ll be interesting to see if Guadalajara use this conservative approach in the first leg. 

Fidalgo Red Card Gives Sets Guadalajara For Memorable Win Against Club America 

Guadalajara have been in Club America’s shadow for a long time, so the 3-1 win against Club America in the second leg will live long in the memory of the Guadalajara faithful. They hadn’t beaten Club America in some time, and have one Liga MX title less than Club America’s 13, so this was a special victory for multiple reasons. Guadalajara had it all to do in the second leg after Club America won the first leg 1-0, but they didn’t show any fear. 

They made a bright start and were rewarded for their bravery in the 19th minute after Ronaldo Cisneros found the target. The first half was fairly edgy, with both sides more concerned with what the other could do, and ended 1-0 in Guadalajara’s favor. Club America upped the tempo in the second half, and Diego Valdes Contreras used that momentum to level the scores in the 57th minute. 

However, Club America couldn’t celebrate the goal for long as Alvaro Fidalgo got sent off seven minutes later. The game changed completely after his dismissal, and Guadalajara didn’t need a second invitation to capitalize on Fidalgo’s error. 

Alan Mozo made it 2-1 in the 77th minute to level the score on aggregate to 2-2. Jesus Orozco made it 3-1 11 minutes later to stun the Azteca crowd. On the whole, Guadalajara deserved to go to the next round. Club America were a little fortunate to win the first leg 1-0 and didn’t do enough in the second leg despite having the home advantage. 

Guadalajara took 11 shots to Club America’s 10 and six shots on target to Club America’s two. They didn’t have a greater share of possession in either game but always looked the more likely to score. Ultimately, putting the ball in the back of the net is what matters in these tight games, and Guadalajara did it better than Club America over the two legs. 

Sebastian Cordova Is The Hero In Tigres’ 1-0 Win Against Monterrey   

Sebastian Cordova’s 79th-minute header was the difference as Tigres won the second leg 1-0 and the tie 2-1 on aggregate. Like the first leg, the early minutes of this match were a bit cagey, with goalkeepers from both sides getting most of the attention for the antics. 

After around 10 minutes, Monterrey started to get a hold of the ball and took some shots, but most of the shots were from range. Things switched a bit after the first 25 minutes as Tigres started to have more of the possession, and Monterrey decided to take a bit of a backseat. Like in the first leg, Monterrey strangely seemed content with sitting back and waiting for a counter or a moment of magic. They continued taking shots from range and playing hopeful crosses as the half ended 0-0. 

The second half wasn’t too different from the first one before it looked like Monterrey scored the game's first goal in the 78th minute. The goal was ruled offside, inadvertently giving Tigres some impetus, and the visitors scored a minute later. 

Once again, the Quinones and Cordova combination made the difference for Tigres. Quinones switched the ball to his weaker left foot from the right back area and played a sumptuous delivery onto the path of an onrushing Cordova, who made no mistake with the header. 

Like Club America in the other tie, Monterrey seemed to be playing within themselves over the two legs and was punished for it. Tigres also showed that they’re more than a one-man team, as marksman Andre-Pierre Gignac was kept quiet in both legs. The attention towards Gignac seems to have helped Cordova, who has been outstanding in the playoffs – he has been a creative hub and scored some crucial goals in the last few matches for Tigres.

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How to Watch Tigres vs Guadalajara

  • Teams: Tigres vs Guadalajara
  • Location: Estadio Universitario 
  • Time: Thursday, May 25
  • How to watch: Univision networks TUDN and UniMas, ESPN Deportes, Telemundo, and Fox Deportes
Image for Nikhil Kalro

AUTHOR

Nikhil Kalro

679 Articles

With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]

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