Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Happ Thrives as Teammates Falter

The Chicago Cubs have been catching a lot of heat from the national media, largely due to the struggles of Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong. While those stars are still struggling, Ian Happ has stepped up to keep this team in the hunt for an NL Central title.

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Home Run Picks for Friday, September 5

Ian Happ Anytime Home Run (+305) at Caesars Sportsbook

Happ only has 19 home runs on the season, but three of those have come over his last seven games while batting .429. While this hot streak won’t last forever, a favorable pitching matchup gives us plenty of reason to believe it will last at least one more night. 

Another reason we like Happ is that the Cubs will need him to play a big role. Kyle Tucker is dealing with a calf injury, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has been on a physical/mental break amid a brutal slump. Chicago still has a chance to catch the Brewers in the division, giving this roster plenty of reason to give it all each night. 

Happ and the Cubbies will be facing Nationals starter Jake Irvin (8-10, 5.42, 1.41 WHIP). The 28-year-old is having the worst season of his young career, thanks largely to a brutal August run. Irvin went 0-5 with an 8.78 ERA over six starts (27 ⅔ innings). He allowed eight home runs that month, including two in his last time out.

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Shohei Ohtani Anytime Home Run (+175) at Caesars Sportsbook

Ohtani has been hitting at an elite level over the last month. Since August, he has been batting .324 with eight home runs and 14 RBIs. His hot bat has helped the Dodgers hold off the Padres, and the three-time MVP isn’t showing any signs of tiring. While his average is a bit lower on the road this season, his OPS (1.014) is higher.

Ohtani is one of the safer home run bets in the league, but there is an extra reason to back him tonight. The Orioles will have starter Dean Kremer (9-10, 4.52 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) on the mound to face the Dodgers. He has been a solid mid-rotation starter for a few seasons, but he has fallen apart over the last two months. Since July 1, the righty is 2-3 with a 4.94 ERA.

Over his last two starts, Kremer has allowed 13 earned runs on 16 hits and three walks over just eight innings. He also surrendered three home runs.

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Manny Machado Anytime Home Run (+310) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Few sluggers went as cold as Machado did in August, batting .222 with just one home run. Fortunately, we saw the veteran turn things around to deliver a deep shot against the Orioles on Wednesday. Machado is too good to slump for this long, making us believe his last game is a sign that a hot streak is coming.

Another reason we love this bet is that Machado will be playing in the launch pad that is Coors Field. He’ll also be facing a struggling Kyle Freeland (3-14, 5.41 ERA, 1.52 WHIP), who is 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA. He allowed five home runs over those starts (11 innings).

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