Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect the Red Sox to Struggle Against Tarik Skubal

Negative regression looms large over the Boston Red Sox offense as they are set to face off against Tarik Skubal and his elite individual production on the mound. Shortly after their opening pitch, we target the NRFI in the matchup between Toronto and Tampa Bay as both struggling offenses battle it out against a pair of pitchers who excel at avoiding contact.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers - Hunter Dobbins vs. Tarik Skubal (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-140) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After winning the AL Cy Young award in 2024, Tarik Skubal is currently on pace to win it again as the Detroit Tigers ace is averaging an ERA of 2.08, a WHIP of 0.881, a FIP of 2.12, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. Not only has Skubal carried over his momentum into this season, but the Tigers defense has also drastically improved as their back end ranks first overall in Defensive Efficiency and 10th in Fielding Percentage.

Against Boston, Skubal will have the opportunity to get off to a hot start as he faces off against a top of their order who has struggled with getting into scoring position. As of writing, Rafael Devers is averaging over one Strikeout per game while Jarren Duran possesses an OPS less than 0.700. With Skubal in full control of his command, expect the Tigers ace to pick apart the Red Sox top of their order and keep a clean sheet in the first inning.

On the other side of the field, the Detroit Tigers red hot offense faces off against Hunter Dobbins who excels at keeping opposing runners off the bases as his ERA of 2.78 and WHIP of 1.191 indicates. Even with his back end struggling in coverage, Dobbins possesses enough individual production to neutralize the Tigers top of their order and escape the first inning without conceding an Earned Run.

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Ryan Pepiot vs. Chris Bassitt (7:07 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It has been a turbulent start to the year for the Toronto Blue Jays offense as their lineup has been able to make contact at an above league average rate but have struggled to bring home their runners on base. After Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerroro Jr, the Blue Jays top of their order suffers from a sizable drop off in production as Anthony Santander averages less than one Hit per game, a 0.194 Batting Average, and a OPS less than 0.620.

In an AL East division showdown against Tampa Bay, the Blue Jays struggles with consistently making contact and getting on base are poised to persist as they face off against Ryan Pepiot who averages less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched and an ERA of 3.86. Especially with Pepiot receiving a high level of support from his defense as the Rays back end currently ranks fourth overall in Defensive Efficiency and 11th in Fielding Percentage.

Speaking of struggles on offense, the Rays lineup have failed to play at a competitive level as they currently rank near the bottom of the board in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Their inability to make contact will be on full display against Chris Bassitt as the Blue Jays starting pitcher averages an ERA of 3.35, a FIP of 3.33, and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants - Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Jordan Hicks - Expect the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants top of their orders to open up the scoring early on in their NL West divisional matchup as both offenses face off against a pair of pitchers who average more than one Hit Against and nearly two runners on base per Inning Pitched.

• Los Angeles Angels vs. San Diego Padres - Kyle Hendricks vs. Randy Vasquez - With Kyle Hendricks struggling to keep opposing runners out of scoring position as his ERA of 5.30 and FIP of 5.55 indicates, expect the Los Angeles Angels pitcher to continue to struggle as he faces off against a San Diego offense who ranks in the top half of the board in Team Total Hits and in On Base Percentage.

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