Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect Keider Montero to Round Back Into Form

With the San Francisco Giants offense struggling to make contact, positive regression looms large over the Detroit Tigers Keider Montero as he has struggled to find his footing this season. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers as both lineups are set to face off against a pair of productive arms and two back ends who grade out well in coverage.

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San Francisco Giants vs. Detroit Tigers - Hayden Birdsong vs. Keider Montero (1:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It has been a rough start to the season for Keider Montero as the Detroit Tigers pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 5.28, a WHIP of 1.565, and a FIP of 5.29. A stunning low level of play, especially when factoring in how well his back end has performed this season as the Tigers defense ranks eighth in Defensive Efficiency. Even during his struggles, Montero has still done a modest job at avoiding contact as he is only averaging 1.15 Hits per Innings Pitched.

Against San Francisco, Montero will have a great opportunity to build some momentum as he faces off against a Giants offense who ranks well below league average in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage. Their struggles stem from their aggression as the Giants also rank 10th overall in Strikeout Rate. Expect Montero to take advantage of their inability to make contact and keep a clean sheet in the first inning.

While Montero has struggled, Hayden Birdsong has managed to get off to a hot start as the San Francisco Giants pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 1.91, a WHIP of 1.235, and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. His back end also excels in coverage as the Giants defense ranks above league average in Fielding Percentage. Barring an error, expect Birdsong to neutralize the Tigers bats and finish the first inning without conceding an Earned Run.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers - Kevin Gausman vs. Jacob deGrom (4:05 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-142) at FanDuel Sportsbook

After dealing with a shoulder injury for a majority of last season, Kevin Gausman has managed to round back into dominant form as the Toronto Blue Jays pitcher heads into Monday’s contest averaging an FIP of 3.37 and WHIP of 0.983. While his high ERA is a cause for concern, positive regression is looming as his back end helps limit the amount of contact variance in his starts. As of writing, the Blue Jays defense ranks 11th in Defensive Efficiency.

Gausman will have the opportunity to improve on his ERA with a dominant performance against Texas as he faces off against a Rangers offense who ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Especially with the top of their order failing to get into scoring position early on in their contests as Wyatt Langford, Josh Smith, and Sam Haggerty all average less than one Hit per game and an OPS less than 0.800.

As for Jacob deGrom, the former Cy Young winner is also in a position to thrive as he battles it out against a Blue Jays lineup who struggles with getting into scoring position. Even though they grade out well in Contact Rate, their Hits are far and few in-between as their low mark in Total Runs Scored and RBIs indicates. With deGrom averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched and a WHIP of 0.931, expect Toronto to continue to struggle with scoring.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Carson Palmquist vs. Jameson Taillon - Expect the Chicago Cubs to sustain their high level of play on offense as the current NL Central leaders face off against Carson Palmquist who averages an ERA of 11.88, a WHIP of 2.520, a FIP of 7.52, and a Colorado defense who ranks 30th in Defensive Efficiency.

• St. Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles - Erick Fedde vs. Charlie Morton - Charlie Morton’s struggles on the mound are poised to persist as he faces off against a St. Louis offense who ranks top-5 in Contact Rate and On Base Percentage while he averages more than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched and a FIP of 5.88.

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