Best NRFI Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Blue Jays Offense

With Paul Skenes on the mound, negative regression looms large over the Toronto Blue Jays' offense as the NL Rookie of the Year award winner possesses an elite blend of power and accuracy. We then turn our attention towards the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox as Dustin May has the opportunity to round back into form with a favorable matchup against an offense who struggles with making contact.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Props Today.

Odds provided by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Sign up at Hard Rock Bet today and get $150 in bonus bets in the form of six $25 bets.

If classic sportsbooks are not available in your state, try one of the best social sportsbooks to get in on the MLB action. See our selection below.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Kevin Gausman vs. Paul Skenes (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-160) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After narrowly winning the NL Cy Young award last year, Paul Skenes has picked up from where he left off as the Pittsburgh Pirates ace is currently listed as the betting favorite to win the award this season. Skenes has been dominant in his 25 starts as he heads into Monday night’s contest against the Toronto Blue Jays averaging an ERA of 2.13, a WHIP of 0.959, and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

Every bit of his production will be needed against Toronto as he faces off against an offense who leads the league in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage. Fortunately for Skenes, he possesses more than enough arm talent to neutralize their offense as his NL leading FIP of 2.51 indicates. Especially with his back end excelling in coverage as the Pirates defense ranks 11th overall in Defensive Efficiency.

As for Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays pitcher draws a much more favorable matchup as he faces off against a Pirates offense who ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Expect the Pirates' struggles on offense to continue to persist as Gausman takes the mound averaging an ERA of 3.79, a WHIP of 1.051, and a FIP of 3.81.

Bet $5 at Hard Rock Bet and Claim $150 in Bonus Bets

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox - Trevor Rogers vs. Dustin May (7:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-120) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Dustin May has struggled to find his footing as the Boston Red Sox pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 4.67 and a FIP of 4.48. While his current marks on the mound may seem alarming at first, it is worth noting that he has been a tad unfortunate and positive regression looms large as he is also averaging less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched.

In an AL East divisional matchup against Baltimore, May will have a great opportunity to round back into form as he faces off against an Orioles offense who ranks below league average in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage. Their struggles with generating Hits hurts their ability to get into scoring position as the Orioles also rank in the bottom half of the board in RBIs and in Total Runs Scored.

On the other side of the field, the Orioles roll out Trevor Rogers who has been exceptional this season. In his 11 starts, Rogers is averaging an ERA of 1.43 and a WHIP of 0.808. Even when receiving minimal support from his back end, Rogers has been able to sustain his high level of play on the mound as he also averages less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

Wager $5 at Hard Rock and Claim $150 in Bonus Bets

Best YRFI Bets Today

• Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers - Spencer Arrighetti vs. Jack Flaherty - With Spencer Arrighetti averaging an ERA of 6.38 and a FIP of 4.91, expect his struggles on the mound to persist as he battles it out against a Detroit Tigers offense who ranks above league average in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage.

• Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies - Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Kyle Freeland - With Kyle Freeland getting the start, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a great opportunity to open up the scoring in the first inning as the Colorado Rockies pitcher is averaging an ERA of 5.18 and nearly two runners on base per inning.

Join Hard Rock Bet and Claim $150 in Bonus Bets