Best NRFI Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Chicago Cubs Offense

With Braxton Ashcraft on the mound, negative regression looms large over the Chicago Cubs offense as the Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher excels at avoiding contact. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the AL West divisional matchup between Texas and Houston as Jack Leiter is in a great position to build on his momentum by exploiting the Astros struggles with getting in scoring position.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Jameson Taillon vs. Braxton Ashcraft (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After building up a lead in the NL Central standings earlier in the season, the Chicago Cubs hopes of winning the division title are slowly vanishing as they are currently 5.5 games back from Milwaukee for first with less than 20 games remaining in the year. Even during their stumble, their offense has been able to play at a high level as they rank near the top of the board in Team Total Hits and in On Base Percentage.

Unfortunately for Chicago, negative regression looms large over their offense as they are set to face off against Braxton Ashcraft who is currently averaging an ERA of 2.47, a FIP of 2.85, and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched. Especially when he is supported by a very productive back end as the Pirates defense ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

Unlike Ashcraft, Jameson Taillon draws a much more favorable assignment as he faces off against a Pirates offense who ranks near the bottom of the board in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. Their struggles with making contact bodes well for Taillon as the Cubs pitcher takes the mound averaging a WHIP of 1.111 and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

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Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Jack Leiter vs. Jason Alexander (8:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

It has been an underwhelming past few weeks for the Houston Astros as the former division leaders are currently 4-6 in their last ten games. Their recent cold stretch of play has knocked them down to second place in the AL West standings, potentially resulting in them losing their home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs should the Seattle Mariners hold on to their lead and win the division.

Their struggles with getting into scoring position has hurt their ability to compete as the Astros offense ranks below league average in Total Runs Scored, RBIs, and in Slugger Percentage. With Jack Leiter on the mound, the Astros struggles with scoring are poised to persist as the Texas Rangers pitcher averages an ERA of 3.81 while surrounded by a defense who leads the league in Defensive Efficiency.

On the other side of the field, Jason Alexander will have a great opportunity to round back into competitive form as he faces off against a Rangers offense who ranks below league average in Contact Rate, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. With Alexander averaging less than one Hit per inning pitched, expect the Rangers to continue to struggle with making contact and be held scoreless in the first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins - Carlos Rodon vs. Simeon Woods Richardson - With Simeon Woods Richardson averaging an ERA of 4.58 and a FIP of 4.97, expect the Minnesota Twins pitchers struggles on the mound to be on full display as he faces off against a New York Yankees lineup who ranks top-15 in Contact Rate.

• San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Kai-Wei Teng vs. Zac Gallen - The Arizona Diamondbacks offense have a great opportunity to open up the scoring early on in their contest against the San Francisco Giants as they face off against Kai-Wei Teng who averages nearly two runners on base per inning and a defense who ranks 27th overall in Defensive Efficiency.

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