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Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect the Padres Offense to Continue to Struggle With Scoring

Published: September 22, 2025, 08:00 AM ET
4 min read
Best NRFI Bets Today 2025 09 22 Padres Nick Pivetta

With Freddy Peralta getting the start for Milwaukee, the San Diego Padres offense will continue to struggle with scoring as the Brewers pitcher excels at avoiding contact. Shortly after their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants as both underwhelming offenses are set to battle it out against a pair of productive arms on the mound.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Props Today.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres - Freddy Peralta vs. Nick Pivetta (9:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-150) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Even though Paul Skenes is expected to win the NL Cy Young award by a landslide, Freddy Peralta still rivaled the Pittsburgh Pirates ace by averaging an ERA of 2.65, a WHIP of 1.073, and a FIP of 3.61. Peralta’s success this season can be attributed to his high Whiff Rate as the Milwaukee Brewers pitcher is also averaging less than one Hit Allowed and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

In a favorable matchup against San Diego, Peralta will have a great opportunity to get off to a hot start as he faces off against a Padres offense who ranks below league average in Total Runs Scored, RBIs, and in Slugger Percentage. Especially when Peralta receives a high level of support from his back end as the Brewers defense ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, negative regression looms large over the Brewers offense as they are set to battle it out against the Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta who is averaging an ERA of 2.81 and a WHIP of 0.966. Even with the Brewers capable of making contact at a consistent rate, Pivetta possesses more than enough individual production to neutralize the top of their order as his FIP of 3.49 indicates.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants - Michael McGreevy vs. Justin Verlander (9:45 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

It has been a rough two weeks of play for the San Francisco Giants as they are 3-7 in their last 10 games while their hopes of making the playoffs are steadily evaporating into thin air in the process. Their low level of play on offense has hurt their ability to compete this season as their lineup ranks below league average in Contact Rate, On Base Percentage, Total Runs Scored, and in Slugger Percentage.

With the Giants severely underwhelming on offense, Michael McGreevy has a great opportunity to round back into competitive form as the St. Louis Cardinals pitcher is currently averaging a WHIP of 1.198 and a FIP of 3.75. While his back ends struggles in coverage brings in a higher amount of variance in his starts, McGreevy counteracts it by averaging just one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

Like the Giants, the Cardinals offense have also underwhelmed as of late as their lineup heads into Monday night ranked in the bottom half of the board in Slugger Percentage and in On Base Percentage. With Justin Verlander on the mound, expect the Cardinals to continue to struggle with getting on base as the Giants future hall of famer is averaging an ERA of 3.75 and a FIP of 3.71.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

  • Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves - MacKenzie Gore vs. Chris Sale - The Atlanta Braves have a great opportunity to get into scoring position from the opening pitch in their NL East divisional matchup against Washington as they face off against MacKeznie Gore who is averaging a WHIP of 1.319 and a Nationals defense who ranks 29th overall in Defensive Efficiency.

Especially when the Braves offense have seemingly elevated their level of play as of late after struggling for a majority of the year as their lineup currently ranks above league average in Contact Rate, On Base Percentage, and in Total Runs Scored.

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Kody Malstrom WSN Contributor

Kody Malstrom

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Kody Malstrom is a sports betting journalist with six years of writing experience in the industry. He covers an abundance of sports, including College Football, NFL, College Basketball, NBA, and more. Born and raised in Michigan, Kody is a devoted Detroit Sports fan and spends his Sundays rooting for the Detroit Lions while telling himself this year is the year they win it all. When not staring at betting markets, Kody spends his free time at the beach in the summer or snowboarding in the winter.
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Experience: 6 years
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