Best NRFI Bets Today: Back Shane Bieber to Neutralize the Mariners Top of Their Order

Since the start of September, the Seattle Mariners offense have harshly regressed as the AL West division champions continue to fall down the board in Contact Rate. Unfortunately for Seattle, their struggles with generating Hits are poised to persist in game three of the ALCS as they face off against the Toronto Blue Jays Shane Bieber who excels at avoiding contact and keeping opposing runners off the bases.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners - Shane Bieber vs. George Kirby (8:08 PM, EST)

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Even after a lengthy rehabilitation period while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Shane Bieber was able to play at a very high level as the Toronto Blue Jays pitcher averaged an ERA of 3.57 and a WHIP of 1.017 this season. While his Strikeout Rate was shockingly low, Bieber still excelled at putting opposing batters in low quality contact scenarios as he averaged less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched.

Fortunately for the former Cy Young winner, Bieber will have a great opportunity to generate a heavier volume of Strikeouts as he faces off against a Seattle Mariners offense who ranks below league average in Contact Rate. Their recent struggles at the plate can be attributed to their lack of patience as the Mariners offense also ranks near the bottom of the board in Strikeout Rate.

In the off-chance the Mariners offense carries over their success from game two into game three, Bieber’s back end will help lessen the probability of them finding the gaps in their outfield as the Blue Jays defense ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency. Barring an error, expect Bieber to make quick work of the Mariners top of their order and keep a clean sheet.

On the other side of the field, George Kirby draws a much tougher assignment as the Mariners pitcher faces off against a Blue Jays offense who leads the league in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage. Toronto’s ability to string together their Hits helps them in their efforts of getting into scoring position as their lineup also ranks in the top half of the board in RBIs and in Total Runs Scored.

With Kirby on the mound, negative regression looms large over the Blue Jays offense as the Mariners pitcher averages a FIP of 3.37 and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. Kirby’s back end also helps reduce the amount of variance in his outings with their suffocating coverage as the Mariners defense ranks top-15 in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage. With both pitchers in a favorable position to get off to a hot start, expect no runs to be scored in the first inning.

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