Best NRFI Bets Today: Back Shohei Ohtani to Neutralize the Blue Jays Top of Their Order

With Shane Bieber and Shohei Ohtani on the mound, negative regression looms large over the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays top of their orders as both pitchers generate Whiffs at a high rate. Especially when they are supported by a pair of back ends who excel in coverage as this lessens the amount of variance in the contest which increases their chances of keeping a clean sheet in the first inning.

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Best NRFI Bets for Tuesday, October 28

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Shane Bieber vs. Shohei Ohtani (8:00 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Even though Shane Bieber was held to just seven games while recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Toronto Blue Jays pitcher still managed to play at a high level as he finished the regular season with an ERA of 3.57 and a WHIP of 1.017. His ability to avoid contact has played a major role in his success on the mound this year as Bieber also averaged less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched.

While his ERA and WHIP have regressed since the start of the playoffs, expect Bieber to quickly round back into form as the former Cy Young winner is also averaging a FIP of 3.54. Especially with his defense limiting the amount of contact variance with their high level of play on the back end as the Blue Jays head into game four of the World Series ranked above league average in Defensive Efficiency.

On the other side of the field, Shohei Ohtani has been able to carry over his success from the regular season into the playoffs as the reigning NL MVP is averaging an ERA of 2.25, a WHIP of 0.750, and a FIP of 1.22. While his current marks are unsustainable, his Whiff Rate will help slow down regression as Ohtani is also averaging less than one Hit Against and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

Ohtani’s ability to punch out will be key as the Blue Jays offense are heavily reliant on making contact to get into scoring position. While Toronto’s lineup does lead the league in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage, they rank just league average in Bases on Walks. Their lack of patience at the plate will allow Ohtani to take advantage of their aggression and continue to generate Strikeouts at a very high rate.

Should the Blue Jays be able to counter Ohtani’s power and make contact, finding the gaps in the outfield will be a struggle as the Dodgers defense ranks near the top of the board in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage. Barring an error, expect Ohtani to neutralize the Blue Jays top of their order and exit the first inning without conceding a run.

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