MLS Conference Semifinals 2019: Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC: Predictions and Odds
Game Prediction: Atlanta 2, Toronto 0.
How to Watch
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
When: Wednesday, October 30th at 8:00 PM EST
How (TV/Radio): TV: ESPN2, TVAS, TSN4, ESPN Deportes. Union Radio, Atlanta Radio: The Game 92.9 FM.
Atlanta United FC
Atlanta moved onto the Eastern Conference Final by defeating Philadelphia by the score of 2-0 in the knockout Conference Semifinal.
Atlanta United FC has a 70% probability to defeat the Toronto and a 24% shot at winning the MLS Cup according to FiveThirtyEight.
Atlanta stands at +275 to win the MLS Championship on November 10th.
Toronto FC made it to the Eastern Conference Final by shocking top seeded NYCFC last week by the score of 2-1.
FiveThirtyEight is giving Toronto FC a 30% probability of defeating Atlanta and an 8% probability of winning the title.
Toronto FC has the lowest odds of the final four to win the MLS Cup at +700.
Atlanta United FC: Brad Guzan (18-12-4, 1.26 goals allowed per game in 2019)
Guzan has been terrific on the home pitch at Mercedes-Benz, allowing just one goal in his last three home starts.
- Against Philadelphia in the Conf. Semifinal, Guzan posted a shutout, denying all three of the Union’s shots on goal.
- In the postseason, Guzan has yet to allow a goal, saving all nine shots that he’s faced in the opening two rounds.
- Guzan allowed three goals in the two matches this season against Toronto, will all three coming in the 3-2 road loss on June 26th.
Toronto FC: Quentin Westberg (9-9-9, 1.46 goals allowed per game in 2019)
In his two postseason games, Westberg has held opposing teams to just two goals on ten shots on goal.
- Westberg allowed just one goal in the 2-1 Conf. Semifinal win over NYCFC.
- The Toronto keeper has allowed just one goal in each of his last six road games of 2019.
- Westberg faced Atlanta once this season, allowing two goals on five shots in Toronto’s 3-2 home win in late-June.
Stats to Watch
Atlanta United FC
Atlanta is scoring 2.1 goals on the home pitch at Mercedes-Benz Stadium while allowing a minuscule 0.7 goals in their home contests.
- Atlanta’s Julian Gressel and leading scorer Josef Martinez netted goals in the 2-0 Conference Semifinal win over Philadelphia last week.
- Josef Martinez has netted 17 of his 28 goals this season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
- Atlanta has allowed two or more goals at home just three times this season. In the other 16 home games, teams have scored just one goal or less.
Toronto FC is scoring 1.4 goals away from BMO Field, while they are allowing a respectable 1.5 goals per road match in 2019.
- Toronto was shutout earlier this season in Atlanta by the score of 2-0.
- Alejandro Pozuelo scored both goals, including a penalty kick in the 90th minute in the 2-1 upset of NYCFC last week.
- Toronto has allowed three or more goals on the road just three times this season.
Last Five Games
Atlanta United FC
- Atlanta United FC has won four straight on their home pitch by the combined score of 9-2.
- In their last five matches, including the playoffs, Atlanta United FC has a plus-2 goal differential.
- Atlanta United FC is 4-1-0 in their last five home matches of 2019, including their three straight home wins in October.
- Toronto FC has posted a record of 2-0-3 over their last five road matches.
- Over their last five road games, Toronto has a plus-5 goal differential.
- Toronto FC has scored two or more goals in three of their last five games on the road.
Atlanta has the distinct advantage in this Conference Final due to the home-pitch advantage of playing at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The club does not allow opposing teams to score on their home field, allowing just 0.7 goals per game this season.
I’m afraid for Toronto, the highlight of their season will be last week’s dramatic upset of NYCFC. They will struggle to score or stop the Atlanta attack from putting a few behind Quentin Westberg and moving on to the MLS Cup.
Game Prediction: Atlanta 2, Toronto 0
Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC – Game Odds
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