Seahawks vs. Patriots Big Game Predictions, Picks and Odds: Expect the Seahawks Defense to Dominate

• The Seattle Seahawks are currently the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl

• Drake Maye is averaging 177.7 Passing Yards per game throughout the playoffs

• The Seahawks defense leads the league in Def DVOA and in Yards per Play

In Drake Maye’s second year of his career, the New England Patriots have been able to make their way back to the Super Bowl and are now just one win away from winning their seventh championship as a franchise.

Unfortunately for Maye, negative regression looms large over the Super Bowl MVP contender as he faces off against the Seattle Seahawks who lead the league in most defensive metrics.

Seahawks vs. Patriots Big Game Odds

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Seahawks vs. Patriots Big Game Predictions

Seahawks Preview: Chances of Winning Hinges on Their Defense

Since the start of the regular season, the Seattle Seahawks defense have been in a tier of their own as they lead the league in Def DVOA and in Yards per Play. Their ability to generate pressure with just their defensive line while their linebackers drop back in coverage have played a major role in their success, making it easier for them to generate Havoc with more bodies near the point of contact.

Heading into the Super Bowl, the Seahawks chances of winning the title will hinge on their defense as they face off against Drake Maye who resides near the top of the board in Quarterback EPA per Play. Should their pressure force Maye to get the ball out of his hands shortly after the snap, then their corners will be able to stay on the Patriots' pass catcher's hips for the full duration of their routes and create disruptions at a high rate.

Patriots Preview: Maye Must Round Back Into Form

As previously mentioned, Drake Maye has been one of the more productive quarterbacks in the league as the Patriot signal caller ranks near the top of the board in most quarterback metrics. Unfortunately for Maye, he has not been able to carry over his momentum into the playoffs as he is averaging 177.7 Passing Yards per game while completing just 55.8% of his passes.

In order for Maye to bounce back, his offensive line will need to be able to hold their ground and limit the amount of pressure in the backfield. A tall task for any offensive line, especially with the Patriots front five dealing with injuries which may make them vulnerable to getting pushed back quickly after the snap. With no clear path for Maye to move the ball down the field, expect the Seahawks to pull away on the scoreboard and cover the -4.5 spread.

My Pick for Seahawks vs. Patriots Big Game

• My Pick: Seahawks -4.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

With the Seahawks defense holding the Patriots out of the red zone, Darnold will have a great opportunity to set a scoring pace too fast for them to keep up with. Stopping opposing offenses from cutting the distance to gain in half has been an issue for the Patriots as their league average mark in Def Success Rate indicates, increasing the Seahawks probability of keeping their drives down the field alive. With clear advantages on both sides of the ball, expect the Seahawks to win in dominating fashion.

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Seahawks vs. Patriots Big Game Best Bets

Sam Darnold Under 0.5 Interception (-128) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Like Maye, Sam Darnold was also able to play at a very high level this season as the Seahawks quarterback ranks in the top-10 in Completion Percentage Over Expected and in Overall Efficiency. Even when surrounded by an offensive line who resides in the bottom half of the board in Pass Block PFF Grade, Darnold was still able to ward off pressure and connect with his pass catchers at a consistent rate.

Fortunately for Darnold, he will be able to operate in a clean pocket on Sunday night as he faces off against a Patriots front seven who struggles to generate pressure per their below league average mark in Pass Rush Win Rate. With Darnold being able to set his feet instead of having to throw on the run, the quality of his throws will improve which will help limit the amount of Havoc in his passes.

Follow our link to find more Sam Darnold Player Props for the Big Game.

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Kenneth Walker Under 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While Darnold is in a position to thrive, Kenneth Walker may be in for a long night as he gets the unfortunate task of battling against a defense who ranks near the top of the board in Run Defense Line Yards. With more bodies in the trenches, the width of Walker’s running lanes will harshly decline which lowers his chances of reaching the second level of their defense.

Fighting past contact was already a struggle for Walker heading into the Super Bowl as the Seahawks running back ranks well below league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. For some more exposure, escalator bet Walker’s Rushing Yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate unders at the best available odds.

We share more Kenneth Walker III player props for Seahawks vs Patriots here.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba to Score 2+ Touchdowns (+300) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

When in scoring position, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a reliable pass catcher for Darnold to throw to as the betting favorite for the Offensive Player of the Year award has converted 60% of his Receptions into touchdowns. With extra time in the open field to break away from the Patriots coverage, expect JSN to continue to create high quality passing lanes in the endzone for Darnold to throw to.

Get more Jaxon Smith-Njigba player props for the Big Game.

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Patriots Alternate Team Total Under 21.5 (-150) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

As alluded to earlier, the Patriots will see a decline in their total number of scoring opportunities as their offense will be prone to stalling out in the middle of the field at a higher rate. In the rare instance they are able to get inside the 20, expect their drives to result in field goals as the Seahawks defense also ranks in the top-2 in Def EPA and in Red Zone Efficiency.

To make matters worse for the Patriots, they lack the versatility that is needed to stretch out the Seahawks coverage as their ground game ranks 22nd in Rush Success Rate. With Rhamondre Stevenson incapable of pulling defensive attention to the middle, the Seahawks will be able to stretch out their coverage to help cover more ground. If you do not want to pay the tax on the Patriots alternate team total at the key number of 21.5, then reduce the size of your wager at 20.5.

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Listen to our Ride the Line podcast below, and hear what Tanner Kern and Grant Mitchel predict for the Big Game.

How to Watch Seahawks vs. Patriots Big Game

• When: Sunday, February 8 at 6:30 PM ET

• Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California

• How to Watch: NBC, Peacock, NFL+

Recent Seahawks vs. Patriots Big Game News

• Drake Maye is currently dealing with a shoulder injury

• The Las Vegas Raiders have hired Klint Kubiak as their next head coach

• Kid Rock is set to headline the Super Bowl’s alternate halftime show