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Over 0.5 tie-breaks in Nick Kyrgios vs Daniel Altmaier at +100 at bet365
First set score 7-6 in Nick Kyrgios vs Daniel Altmaier at +375 at bet365
Jenson Brooksby and Alexander Bublik Moneyline parlay at +135 at bet365
Ryan Peniston to win the first set v Casper Ruud at +240 at bet365
First set score 7-6 in Casper Ruud vs Ryan Peniston at +450 at bet365
Nikoloz Basilashvili to win a set vs Andrey Rublev at +130 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Marin Cilic to win the Cinch Championships at +500 at Caesars Sportsbook
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It’s often said how different today’s grass courts play compared to the days of John McEnroe and Pete Sampras.
But while there’s truth in that, the grass of the 2020s is still more than capable of baffling some of the game’s best players.
Ruud is the top seed at this week’s cinch Championships at London’s famous Queen’s Club but, thankfully for him, the seedlings aren’t based on grasscourt form.
The Norwegian has played just six career matches on this surface, winning two of them. Both came in Mallorca, where conditions are somewhat different, with his best victory coming against the world number 68.
Ruud will face a player ranked outside the top 150 here but Peniston is someone who enjoys the grass and he’s beaten some much higher-ranked players on the surface on the Challenger Tour over the past two weeks, Adrian Mannarino and Jiri Vesely among them.
Last week in Nottingham the Briton won 85% of points behind his first serve and while the level of opposition is rising here, Ruud will be playing his first match on grass in a year and, as already pointed out, he’s unlikely to be looking forward to it.
If Peniston can deal with the nerves of playing on the show court, I believe he can make this very competitive.
Krajinovic is another player who has struggled on the grass – his last win on this surface came back in 2015!
He’s never actually won a grasscourt match at tour level and so Brooksby looks a good thing here at around -190.
The American should be much more at home – he made the final of the grasscourt tournament in Newport, Rhode Island, last year.
He’s also bedded in having played on grass in the Netherlands last week, winning once. In contrast, this will be Krajinovic’s first match on the surface this season.
Losing to eventual runner-up (and two-time Wimbledon champion) Andy Murray in Stuttgart last week was no disgrace for Bublik, who is happy to be off the clay and onto faster courts.
His booming serve should win him plenty of points on the lush lawns of west London this week and I expect him to have too much for Musetti, who may struggle to hold onto his own deal more often.
He lost his grasscourt opener in Stuttgart last week, failing to break Nikoloz Basilashvili’s serve.
A loss in a similar style could follow here and I’ll happily double Bublik up in a parlay with Brooksby.
As already indicated, Basilashvili has already taken to the grass this season, beating Musetti in Stuttgart before losing a close battle with Nick Kyrgios in three sets.
That’s not a bad result and the man who seems to love playing in Germany – three of his five titles have come in the country – could also push Rublev this week in Halle.
The Russian is moving onto the grass for the first time in 2022 and while he did make the final here 12 months ago, the switch from clay to grass is always an awkward one with top players often vulnerable first up.
Basilashvili, whose flat-hitting has the potential to really rush his opponent, has beaten Rublev twice in their five meetings and won a set in two of the others so the Georgian to win a set at +130 makes an appeal.
Backing him on the game handicap is another option, with the +400 about him landing the upset worthy of consideration for those looking to play the big prices.
I’ve saved the best until last with +100 about a tie-break occurring in this match looking a great wager.
Kyrgios helped land a +310 winner for this column last week when the first set of his match with Jiri Lehecka went to a breaker.
His huge serve is a massive weapon on this surface but his poor return game – he’s broken just 13% of the time on grass in his career – usually means his opponents have a good chance of keeping things competitive.
I expect that to be the case with Altmaier, who last week narrowly lost out to the big-serving Oscar Otte in Stuttgart, notably losing 7-6 7-6.
The German won 89% of his first-serve points and banged down 12 aces. That’s the sort of serving Kyrgios will struggle to return.
A tie-break in the match looks worth a bet at the price, as does one in the first set at +275 – the latter bet landed in all four of Kyrgios’ matches last week.
Marin Cilic played some great tennis en route to the semi-finals of the recent French Open at Roland Garros and he looks in good shape heading onto his favorite surface.
Cilic is a former Wimbledon finalist, while he’s won the warm-up tournament at London’s Queen’s Club twice, and finished runner-up on another two occasions.
His serve and forehand are potent weapons on the slick courts of England’s capital. Throw in a good draw and the Croatian looks a worthy favorite.
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|ATP London and Halle Information|
|What||ATP Cinch Championships; ATP Terra Wortmann Open|
|Location||Queen’s Club, London, UK; Halle, Germany|
|Time||Monday, June 13 to Sunday, June 19|
|How to Watch||Tennis Channel|
Andy is a sports journalist of more than 20 years’ experience and is a former betting editor of the UK-based website, Sporting Life. He has specialized in tennis for many years, previewing hundreds of ATP Tour events and reporting from tournaments such as the ATP Finals and Davis Cup final. Andy has also covered numerous other sports, with a particular interest in soccer and cricket.More info on Andy Schooler
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