Arlington Million Odds: Adhamo Will Be Making His First Start of the Year on Saturday

Check out our predictions and odds for the 2023 Arlington Million at Colonial Downs!

Odds provided by author Brian Zipse.

Arlington Million Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($60 in total)

• $5 Exacta Box - Adhamo, Catnip, Master Piece and Satin = $60 
• If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick Adhamo (8/1)

To ensure your bets, check out our Horse Racing Calculator, here!

A winner of one seven-figure race already this year, Atone will be in search of another as he faces ten other older turf males in Saturday’s $1 million Arlington Million (G1) at Colonial Downs.

Trained by Mike Maker, the Into Mischief gelding scored his first career stakes victory three starts back when he surged to victory in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream Park. 

He has been beaten in his two starts since, but ran a solid race last out in Pimlico’s Dinner Party. To be ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, he is just one of numerous potential winners in this Grade 1 turf affair.

There will be numerous challengers to his favoritism in the 10-furlong test, among them is a pair from trainer Chad Brown. 

Rockemperor may not win often, but when he does, it is usually an impressive display. A Grade 1 winner, the son of the Holy Roman Emperor will be in search of his first victory of the year on Saturday. 

Adhamo, meanwhile, is another European import for Brown who has flashed glimpses of real ability. Making his 2023 debut here, his one win in six American starts came in the Grade 1 United Nations last summer.

Previously run at the now-defunct Arlington International Racecourse, this will be the first year that Colonial Downs hosts the Arlington Million, Beverly D., and Secretariat. The important turf trio was held at Churchill Downs last year.

Arlington Million Predictions and Race Analysis

Atone

The morning line favorite is the only horse in the field with a Grade 1 win this year. That came early in the year when he won the Pegasus World Cup back in January with a strong finish. 

Trained by Mike Maker, he has not been quite as good in his next two starts but ran a solid race last time in the Dinner Party at Pimlico. In a very wide open race, someone had to be made the favorite but this 6-year-old gelding certainly does not stand out. 

In fact, I think the sole reason he was made the favorite is because of that Grade 1 score. As always, he is a threat but with only one career stakes win, I am happy to take a shot to beat him as the favorite.

Rockemperor

The first of two from top turf trainer Chad Brown, this 7-year-old gelding is a bit of a mystery. At his best, he can do big things, as evidenced by wins in the 2021 Turf Classic (G1) at Belmont and the 2022 Bowling Green (G2) at Saratoga. 

The victories have been a little few and far between though since he arrived from Europe four years ago. 

Still, he has kept excellent company and must be respected. His last effort, when finishing well back in the Grade 1 Manhattan could at least be partially excused by a tough trip. There are plenty of mixed signals here, but he is a threat.

Never Explain

Trained by the Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, this son of Street Sense has transitioned nicely from allowance competition to graded stakes company this year at 5. 

He has already won three times in six starts this year, and he earned his first stakes victory in the Grade 3 Dinner Party at Pimlico three starts back. Edged by Catnip two starts back, he was a solid third in the Grade 2 Bowling Green just 13 days ago. 

Working on short rest, he is clearly in good form for his veteran trainer. One of several in the field with a real chance to win, he is a threat to win on Saturday.

Set Piece

This 7-year-old son of Dansili has been a consistent player in stakes races at middle distances since coming to the Brad Cox barn from England four years ago. He has little early speed, but he knows how to get up for the win, having done it 12 times in his career. 

This race will be a test, though, as he takes on a Grade 1 field at a distance longer than he is accustomed. There is speed here to set the table for his rally, but will he have the same punch running longer?

I am going to side with others at the 10-furlong distance, but it would come as no surprise to see the veteran finishing strongly down the Colonial Downs stretch.

Catnip

This son of Kitten’s Joy is going good right now. Trained by Michael Stidham, the lightly raced 4-year-old has made only seven career starts and is continuing to progress as a serious player in the older male turf division. 

Unbeaten in three starts this year, he has won with three different riders. The last out was his best yet, as he stalked and pounced to win the Grade 3 Monmouth Cup over a solid field. 

A winner of 1-of-2 starts at Colonial Downs last summer, he also has familiarity with the surroundings. If he’s too close to a strong pace, that could hurt his chances, but still, I believe he is one of the most likely winners on Saturday.

Satin

The defending champion of the Arlington Million won last season’s edition at Churchill Downs, which is a course he has proven to love. Given his record elsewhere, it’s fair to wonder if he is as good outside of his favorite track. 

Trained by Brendan Walsh, he is winless in four starts this year, although only one of them came on the grass. Twice a Grade 1 winner on the Churchill turf last year, we know he has the ability to repeat, but given his recent form, it’s hard to know if he can bring his best on Saturday. 

The return to turf should help. This could be the race where he wakes up and runs a good one, but I’m still not sure that will be enough to win.

Adhamo

This Irish-bred son of Intello will be making his first start of the year on Saturday. The Arlington Million is a tough spot for a seasonal debut, but trainer Chad Brown is excellent at having his horses prepared after a layoff. 

Having come over from France, he ran four strong races to begin his U.S. career last year before tailing off at the end of the season. The time away should have done him some good. 

It’s also worth noting that his two disappointing efforts to close the year were both at 12 furlongs. The winner of the Grade 1 United Nations seems to appreciate the 10-furlong trip better. In a very wide-open race, he is my top pick.

Strong Quality

The speed of the race, this Mark Casse son of Quality Road should go right to the lead in this 10-furlong test and see how far he can go under resurgent rider Javier Castellano. 

Since switching to the grass three starts back, he has wired allowance races at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland before setting the pace and fading to fifth in the Grade 1 Manhattan. If that experience at the distance and the class level toughen him up, he is a real threat here. 

Having said that, he will need a little more than last time and there is some other speed in the race to make his task a difficult one.

Master Piece

Bred in Chile, this veteran has only been able to win twice in 14 starts since arriving in America three years ago. One of the wins did come in the Grade 2 Eddie Read at Del Mar last summer, though, and he has been keeping good company. 

Winless in four starts so far this year, he will need improvement to seriously threaten on Saturday. Making his second start for new trainer Rick Dutrow, improvement is definitely a possibility. That pattern worked extremely well last weekend for White Abarrio. 

Off his recent form, he cannot be completely dismissed and if Dutrow can work his magic, he could be a threat to surprise on Saturday.

Strong Tide

Another one with some speed, this son of English Channel has not won a stakes race in nearly three years and that came on the dirt against fellow Indiana state-breds. 

He has been competitive at times against good open company like his third in the Grade 1 Man O’ War three starts back, but he does not give me the impression of a horse about to win a big one. 

Most recently fourth in a minor stakes race back in Indiana, he’s pretty far down my list of potential winners of the Arlington Million.

Win for the Money

The second from the Casse barn, this 4-year-old gelding also has some early speed but will likely be content to sit off his speedy entry mate early. He has looked good since switching to the grass two starts back. 

In his two career starts on turf, he has not been beaten to the wire, although he was taken down in the first one. Both came in allowance company, so this will be a major bump up in class. 

He does have a win over the Colonial turf course, but it came against cheaper runners while running shorter. It looks like he is becoming a nice horse. Still, I am looking elsewhere in this Grade 1 event.

How to Watch the Arlington Million

• What: Arlington Million (Grade 1)
• Location: Colonial Down
• Time: Saturday, August 12 - 6:40 pm Eastern time
• How to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Purse: $1,000,000