Image for Brian Zipse Brian Zipse - October 14, 2022

Fifth Season Stakes Predictions, Betting Odds, Top Picks

Fifth Season Stakes Post Position and Odds

Odds taken from TVG. TVG racing is a great option for horse race betting. Sign up today and get a $250 sign-up bonus!

PP Horse Odds Jockey Trainer
1 THOMAS SHELBY 6/1
BET HERE
D Cohen R Diodoro
2 RATED R SUPERSTAR 10/1
BET HERE
D Cabrera F Villafranco
3 SNAPPER SINCLAIR 6/1
BET HERE
R A Vasquez S Asmussen
4 NECKER ISLAND 6/1
BET HERE
F Arrieta C Hartman
5 CONCERT TOUR 9/5
BET HERE
J Rosario B Cox
6 ATOKA 15/1
BET HERE
L Contreras D W Lukas
7 LONG RANGE TODDY 20/1
BET HERE
J Court D Stewart
8 SILVER PROSPECTOR 10/1
BET HERE
R Santana Jr S Asmussen
9 MUCHO 4/1
BET HERE
F Geroux J A Ortiz

Best Bets for the Fifth Season Stakes

Here are my plays ($40 in total)

$10 Exacta box – Necker Island and Concert Tour = $20

$10 Exacta box – Necker Island and Snapper Sinclair = $20

If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick Necker Island (6/1)

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Fifth Season Stakes 2022

Twice a Grade 2 winner early last year, Concert Tour will make his first start since last spring’s Preakness Stakes when he headlines a field of nine older males entered in the $150,000 Fifth Season Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn Park.

The 4-year-old son of Street Sense will also be making his first start for the barn of Brad Cox, after being transferred from trainer Bob Baffert last year. In his first start at Oaklawn Park, Concert Tour romped home an easy winner of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in March to run his record to 3-for-3, but he subsequently disappointed when third in the Arkansas Derby and ninth in the Preakness.

Chief among his competition in the deep field is the consistent sprinter Mucho. A recent winner of an Oaklawn allowance race, the son of Blame stretches out for the one-mile Fifth Season for the first time in nearly two years. A stakes winner at Pimlico in June, the John Ortiz-trained 6-year-old has turned in six consecutive sharp efforts at 6 or 7 furlongs.

There are plenty of other interesting candidates in the Fifth Season, including the millionaire Snapper Sinclair, the speedy runner-up of the recent Tinsel Stakes, Thomas Shelby, and the Kentucky Derby veteran and recent stakes winner, Necker Island.

Race Analysis

Concert Tour

This one was one of the Kentucky Derby favorites last spring before fading to third in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby as a prohibitive favorite. He went in the Preakness instead and did not run a lick. Still, it’s hard to forget how good he looked in his first three races, including the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park. The barn switch is likely a positive as Cox has done wonders with horses like this, but eight months away from the races, is still a concern. He adds to the speed in the field, but getting Joel Rosario in the saddle should help. It looks like a mile will be in his sweet spot. If he returns to his best, he will be tough to beat, but this is not an easy spot. As the favorite, I will take a small shot to beat him.

Mucho

After five very competitive efforts in good sprint stakes around the country, this son of Blame emphasized his excellent form with an allowance win over the track on December 18. Proven for class, and a fondness for the track, the only thing we don’t know is about the one-mile distance. If he can get an unpressured lead, the stretch out would not be a problem, but there is good other speed in here in which to deal with. While I love his recent form, he was beaten in a photo in three sprint stakes and I think this spot is all that much tougher. I am going to try to beat him as the second choice here.

Necker Island

This son of Hard Spun is a nice horse who has won 5-of-19 lifetime and closing in on $600,000 in career earnings. A good horse who can compete with stakes horses and is well suited for the one-mile distance, with his turn of foot. Given his solid recent form, and good effort in his only previous race over the track, he rates a real shot on a dry track on Saturday. With rain in the forecast, however, an off track seems like a good possibility, and that is where I really like him. I was extremely impressed with the son of Hard Spun’s two previous efforts on an off track. He is the top pick.

Thomas Shelby

The hottest horse in the field, this gelded son of Curlin won 7-of-12 last season. He stubbornly saw a three-race winning streak come to an end when he was beaten last time when second to his stablemate Lone Rock in the local Tinsel Stakes. It was another strong effort for the speed horse, who looks to prove that he belongs against quality stakes horses. But now he faces even a deeper field as he cuts back from 9 furlongs to a flat mile. Off his recent form, he is an obvious threat, but with a hotter pace expected on Saturday, I am going to look elsewhere.

Snapper Sinclair

This classy veteran is always a danger on his best. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he exits a disappointing fifth-place finish in the Prairie Bayou Stakes last time, but is certainly eligible to bounce back off that performance on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. Very experienced at the one-mile distance, he finished sixth behind Life Is Good in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile two starts back and was a winner over the track and distance in his most recent race at Oaklawn, last February. With plenty of speed in here, the 7-year-old son of City Zip should sit a good stalking trip. He is a major threat.

Rated R Superstar

This one has been around for a long time. In fact, the Fifth Season will be the 57th career start for the 9-year-old, and he really showed no signs of slowing down last season. He doesn’t always fire his best shot, but when he does, he comes running and has proven to fit with this class. Having said that, his last was four months ago, and was a little disappointing. He is also 0-for-6 at the tricky one-mile distance. Like many in here, I would not be at all surprised by a good effort, but all things considered, I like too many others better.

Silver Prospector

On the Kentucky Derby trail in Arkansas two winters ago, this second one from the Steve Asmussen barn has not lived up to the potential he flashed when winning graded stakes early on in his career. Now a 5-year-old, the son of Declaration of War has only one allowance win since taking home the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn two seasons ago, and that allowance win came 15 months ago. He did face good company in all of his four starts in 2021, and was not embarrassed, but didn’t come too close to winning any of them. Away since May, this seems like a tough spot for him to return to his winning ways.

Atoka

A long time maiden, this D. Wayne Lukas-trainee broke out with two strong wins at Ellis Park last summer. A third in the Grade 3 Ack Ack at Churchill Downs pointed out the strides that he had made, but he was handled pretty easily by Necker Island and Mucho next out. A very good allowance effort at Oaklawn Park last time looks like a good prep for this. He is a deserving long shot in the Fifth Season, but not one without hope. Finally putting things together, he could surprise with a nice effort on Saturday.

Long Range Toddy

A well-beaten sixth behind Mucho in an Oaklawn Park allowance race last time, this son of Take Charge Indy will look to bounce back on Saturday. A fast track this time could help, but I don’t know if he will get that. He has plenty of back class and is a seasoned stakes performer, but it’s been a long time since he last visited the winner’s circle. A return to form is certainly not out of the question, but even then I don’t know that he beats this field. I will take a pass.

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How to Watch the Fifth Season Stakes

Fifth Season Stakes Race Information
What Fifth Season Stakes
Location Oaklawn Park
Time Saturday, January 15 — 4:46pm Eastern time
How to Watch TVG
Purse $150,000
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AUTHOR

Brian Zipse

218 Articles

Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.

Email: [email protected]

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