John C. Mabee Stakes: Going Global Has Won 8-Of-13 Career Starts on the Grass
John C. Mabee Stakes Odds and Post Position
Check out our predictions and odds for the 2022 John C. Mabee Stakes at Del Mar!
|1||GOING TO VEGAS||5/2 |
|F Prat||P D’Amato|
|J Bravo||S Callaghan|
|3||AVENUE DE FRANCE||5/1 |
|J J Hernandez||L Powell|
|4||PARK AVENUE||8/1 |
|H Berrios||J Sadler|
|5||GOING GLOBAL||6/5 |
|U Rispoli||P D’Amato|
|6||BURGOO ALLEY||12/1 |
|R A Vazquez||P D’Amato|
|7||EDDIE’S NEW DREAM||15/1 |
|M Gutierrez||B Cecil|
John C. Mabee Stakes Predictions and Best Bets
Here are my plays ($40 in total)
$20 Exacta – Going Global over Going to Vegas = $20
$10 Exacta Part Wheel – Going Global over Burgoo Alley and Bellamore = $20
Top pick Going Global (6/5)
Pick made on 09/08/2022 at 07:17 PM EST
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Led by Going Global and Going to Vegas, trainer Phil D’Amato looks to hold all the trump cards among a field of seven older turf mares set for Saturday’s Grade 2 John C. Mabee Stakes at Del Mar.
A 4-year-old daughter of Mehmas, Going Global has won 8-of-13 career starts on the grass, with all of her victories coming in stakes races. The Irish-bred filly comes into Saturday’s $250,000 test off a convincing score in the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon last out.
A Grade 1 winner at Del Mar last summer, the likely favorite has won three straight at Del Mar after finishing a close second in her first start over the seaside oval’s turf course.
Going to Vegas, meanwhile, is the defending race champion and her stablemate’s top competition. After running in several maidens claiming races early in her career, the Goldencents mare has developed into a Grade 1 winner on the grass.
Although she is winless so far in 2022, the 5-year-old has finished a good second in all three, with her best run coming when beaten just a half-length in Grade 1 Gamely last out on May 30.
The Irish-bred Burgoo Alley rounds out the formidable trio for D’Amato in the 9-furlong turf test.
Of the rest, both Park Avenue and Avenue de France look like the most likely upsetters on Saturday. The former became a stakes winner on the turf two starts back, while the latter was second behind Going Global last time in the Yellow Ribbon.
John C. Mabee Stakes Predictions and Race Analysis
One of the top turf females in the nation, she has been ultra-consistent since arriving in America two winters ago. She’s won 8-of-11 in the U.S. all of which came in stakes races, with the only poor performance coming in a race taken off the turf.
Having said that, she was surprised two starts back when she finished third behind Ocean Road and Going to Vegas in the Grade 1 Gamely. It did not take her long to return to her winning ways, as she romped home an impressive winner of the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar last time.
She has a very good record on this course and there should be enough speed to set up her strong rally. I like her chances to make it two in a row here. She is the top pick.
Going to Vegas
The biggest threat to the top one, this Goldencents mare has come a long way since her maiden claiming days. In fact, she had a big year in 2021 with four wins, three of them in graded stakes, including a Grade 1.
The defending winner of this race, she looks to earn her first win of the year after three consecutive second-place finishes to begin her year. She’s been freshened since a good second in the Grade 1 Gamely in late May.
With Flavien Prat in the saddle, she has a little more early speed than the favorite. She should be ready to come back running and while she has never won a race over anyone as good as Going Global, she is clearly the one the favorite has to beat.
Avenue de France
This 5-year-old French mare has finished first or second in four consecutive stakes races and comes into this test in career best form. The first three, which included two wins, came in listed stakes. Most recently she was second behind Going Global in the Yellow Ribbon.
It was a decent effort but not enough to threaten the winner. While she is running well of late, I do believe that she is best going a little shorter than the 9 furlongs of the John C. Mabee.
That, combined with her inability to break through in a graded stakes race, leaves me looking to beat her as the third choice in here.
This speedy filly from the barn of John Sadler will try to go out early and see how far she can go. I’m still not sure if turf is her best surface, but she did look good going wire-to-wire at Lone Star two starts back and has won two of three on turf.
This test is clearly tougher, though, and the way she backed out last time against Going Global does not leave me with much confidence in her this time. Speed is always dangerous and this filly has some talent, but I am looking elsewhere on Saturday.
The third of three from the D’Amato barn, this Irish-bred will be the forgotten one of the trio. Having said that, if you draw a line through her one race on dirt, she has been a pretty solid filly since arriving in America early last year.
A Grade 3 stakes winner at Santa Anita last fall, she was away from the race for nearly seven months before returning last month in the Yellow Ribbon. She faded a bit late, but was involved in the race for second behind Going Global.
She’ll need to improve, but second off the layoff, there is good reason to believe that she can. At her best, she can stalk and pounce. She will be a longshot I include in my exotics.
Trained by Simon Callaghan, this daughter of Empire Maker has been solid since switching to the grass three starts back. She was denied a victory by stewards’ decision three starts back at Golden Gate Fields, but came a good-looking winner of a Del Mar allowance race next out.
Her stakes debut on the turf came last time where she was game but came up a little short while going 11-furlongs. Still, it was a good effort and should set her up well here in a return to 1 1/8-miles.
She is a longshot against this Grade 2 field, but given her upward ascent on turf, she looks to be a filly who could rally into the exotics.
Eddie’s New Dream
This California-bred daughter of Square Eddie has found success on both turf and dirt, but of late has been sticking with the turf, where she has finished first or second in 6-of-9 career tries. She was passed late by Bellamore in a Del Mar 9-furlong allowance race two starts back as the favorite.
Last time, she also led in deep stretch, before getting caught in deep stretch in the Solana Beach against fellow statebreds. She’s a nice filly, who has been knocking on the door at Del Mar, but this spot looks a little bit tough for her.
How to Watch the John C. Mabee Stakes
|What||John C. Mabee Stakes (Grade 2)|
|Time||Saturday, September 10 — 8:00 pm Eastern time|
|How to Watch||TVG|
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Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.
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