Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Who Goes Deep to Open the Postseason?

The MLB postseason has arrived! Outside of Mets fans, this figures to be the best few weeks of the season. Of course, home run props during the playoffs can be tricky because there are fewer games and (theoretically) better pitching. However, we dug deep for the opening day of the Wild Card Round to come up with some home run props.

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Home Run Picks for Tuesday, September 30

Aaron Judge Anytime Home Run (+215) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Other than Shohei Ohtani, Judge has the most home runs of any player participating in the Wild Card Round, so he’s the obvious pick to go deep in Game 1. Keep in mind that heading into the last day of September, Judge has already hit 10 home runs this month. He’s also been raging hot late in the season, going 9 for 18 with four home runs over his last five games.

Based on those numbers alone, Judge is an excellent target for a home run prop. Surprisingly, Judge’s chances of going deep aren’t hurt by the Yankees facing Garrett Crochet. Judge is 4 for 12 with two home runs in his career against Crochet. He’s also slugging .789 against lefties, so facing Crochet is actually a positive for Crochet.

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Giancarlo Stanton Anytime Home Run (+280) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While it seems unlikely that both Judge and Stanton will homer in the same game, both offer good value. Despite a 2.59 ERA this season, Crochet was frequently hurt by the long ball. He’s given up eight homers across 33 innings in September, and has conceded at least one home run in seven of his last nine starts.

In total, Crochet gave up 24 home runs on the season, 21 of which came against right-handed batters. That points to Stanton, who is 2 for 7 with a home run in his career against Crochet. Plus, Stanton enters the postseason on a five-game hitting streak, with three home runs in his last three games, so he’s also swinging a hot bat.

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Freddie Freeman Anytime Home Run (+360) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Freeman is not the most obvious home run target in the Los Angeles lineup. But he’s getting hot at the right time with a seven-game hitting streak heading into the playoffs. Freeman has also hit three homers in his last three games, so his power is showing up at the right time.

It’s also worth mentioning Freeman’s postseason history. He has 14 career playoff homers in 62 games, including four in 13 games during last year’s postseason. While the matchup with Hunter Greene is a tough one, Freeman has four career hits in 15 at-bats against Greene, including a home run.

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Andy Pages Anytime Home Run (+500) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Pages is another deep cut among home run targets on the Dodgers. But Pages has unfathomable numbers against Greene, going 3 for 5 against him. Somehow, all three of those hits are home runs.

That’s the definition of a small sample size, but it’s hard not to take a chance on Pages if that’s his track record against Greene. Keep in mind that Pages hit 27 homers during the regular season. That’s actually the second-most home runs for anyone on the Dodgers behind Ohtani, making Pages a viable power threat.

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